相关论文: Quarantine generated phase transition in epidemic …

We consider recurrent contagious processes on a time-varying network. As a control procedure to mitigate the epidemic, we propose an adaptive rewiring mechanism for temporary isolation of infected nodes upon their detection. As a case…

Although viral spreading processes taking place in networks are often analyzed using Markovian models in which both the transmission and the recovery times follow exponential distributions, empirical studies show that, in many real…

We study the diffusion of epidemics on networks that are partitioned into local communities. The gross structure of hierarchical networks of this kind can be described by a quotient graph. The rationale of this approach is that individuals…

In the recent COVID-19 pandemic we assisted at a sequence of epidemic waves intertwined by anomalous fade-outs with periods of low but persistent epidemic prevalence. These long-living epidemic states complicate epidemic control and…

We examine how the behaviour of high degree vertices in a network affects whether an infection spreads through communities or jumps between them. We study two stochastic susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) processes and represent our…

We study the threshold of epidemic models in quenched networks with degree distribution given by a power-law. For the susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model the activity threshold lambda_c vanishes in the large size limit on any…

We consider the spread of a supercritical stochastic SIR (Susceptible, Infectious, Recovered) epidemic on a configuration model random graph. We mainly focus on the final stages of a large outbreak and provide limit results for the duration…

It has been known that epidemic outbreaks in the SIR model on networks are described by phase transitions. Despite the similarity with percolation transitions, whether an epidemic outbreak occurs or not cannot be predicted with probability…

The spreading of epidemics is very much determined by the structure of the contact network, which may be impacted by the mobility dynamics of the individuals themselves. In confined scenarios where a small, closed population spends most of…

Infectious disease superspreading caused by heterogeneity in contact behavior has been observed to be an important determinant of epidemic dynamics and size in both empirical and theoretical settings. However, it has also been observed that…

We study the SIR ("susceptible, infected, removed/recovered") model on directed graphs with heterogeneous transmission probabilities within the message-passing approximation. We characterize the percolation transition, predict cluster size…

Initially emerged in the Chinese city Wuhan and subsequently spread almost worldwide causing a pandemic, the SARS-CoV-2 virus follows reasonably well the SIR (Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered) epidemic model on contact networks in the…

We consider the effect of a nonvanishing fraction of initially infected nodes (seeds) on the SIR epidemic model on random networks. This is relevant when, for example, the number of arriving infected individuals is large, but also to the…

We use the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model for disease spread over a network, and empirically study how well various centrality measures perform at identifying which nodes in a network will be the best spreaders of disease on 10…

Models of threshold driven contagion explain the cascading spread of information, behavior, systemic risk, and epidemics on social, financial and biological networks. At odds with empirical observation, these models predict that…

In the last decades, many authors have used the susceptible-infected-recovered model to study the impact of the disease spreading on the evolution of the infected individuals. However, few authors focused on the temporal unfolding of the…

Human mobility and activity patterns mediate contagion on many levels, including the spatial spread of infectious diseases, diffusion of rumors, and emergence of consensus. These patterns however are often dominated by specific locations…

Social interactions are stratified in multiple contexts and are subject to complex temporal dynamics. The systematic study of these two features of social systems has started only very recently mainly thanks to the development of multiplex…

Transmission rates in epidemic outbreaks may vary over time depending on the societal response. Non-pharmacological mitigation strategies such as social distancing and the adoption of protective equipment aim precisely at reducing…

Infectious diseases are practically represented by models with multiple states and complex transition rules corresponding to, for example, birth, death, infection, recovery, disease progression, and quarantine. In addition, networks…