相关论文: Stochastic amplification in an epidemic model with…
During the COVID pandemic, periods of exponential growth of the disease have been mitigated by containment measures that in different occasions have resulted in a power-law growth of the number of cases. The first observation of such…
In this work we performed a numerical study of an epidemic model that mimics the endemic state of whooping cough in the pre-vaccine era. We considered a stochastic SIR model on dynamical networks that involve local and global contacts among…
We define and study an open stochastic SIR (Susceptible -- Infected -- Removed) model on a graph in order to describe the spread of an epidemic on a cattle trade network with epidemiological and demographic dynamics occurring over the same…
We introduce an epidemic model with varying infectivity and general exposed and infectious periods, where the infectivity of each individual is a random function of the elapsed time since infection, those function being i.i.d. for the…
We introduce a kinetic framework for modeling the time evolution of the statistical distributions of the population densities in the three compartments of susceptible, infectious, and recovered individuals, under epidemic spreading driven…
We study a stochastic process describing the onset of spreading dynamics of an epidemic in a population composed by individuals of three classes: susceptible (S), infected (I), and recovered (R). The stochastic process is defined by local…
We introduce a modified SIR model with memory for the dynamics of epidemic spreading in a constant population of individuals. Each individual is in one of the states susceptible (${\bf S}$), infected (${\bf I}$) or recovered (${\bf R}$). In…
This paper studies the spread dynamics of a stochastic SIRS epidemic model with nonlinear incidence and varying population size, which is formulated as a piecewise deterministic Markov process. A threshold dynamic determined by the basic…
This paper focuses on and analyzes realistic SIR models that take stochasticity into account. The proposed systems are applicable to most incidence rates that are used in the literature including the bilinear incidence rate, the…
To better describe the spread of a disease, we extend a discrete time stochastic SIR-type epidemic model of Tuckwell and Williams. We assume the dependence on time of the number of daily encounters and include a parameter to represent a…
A stochastic epidemic model accounting for the effect of contact-tracing on the spread of an infectious disease is studied. Precisely, individuals identified as infected may contribute to detecting other infectious individuals by providing…
Dynamic properties of spreading infection through a heterogeneous population are studied numerically and analytically using a dynamic variant of Watts and Strogatz Small World Network-based stochastic Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed…
Understanding infectious disease spread remains a critical public health challenge, particularly given the interplay between household dynamics and community transmission patterns. Traditional epidemiological models often oversimplify these…
Modelling the transmission dynamics of an infectious disease is a complex task. Not only it is difficult to accurately model the inherent non-stationarity and heterogeneity of transmission, but it is nearly impossible to describe,…
In temperate regions, respiratory virus epidemics recur on a yearly basis, primarily during the winter season. This is believed to be induced by seasonal forcing, where the rate at which the virus can be transmitted varies cyclically across…
The study of epidemiological systems has generated deep interest in exploring the dynamical complexity of common infectious diseases driven by seasonally varying contact rates. Mathematical modeling and field observations have shown that,…
We propose an extension of the classical susceptible infectious recovered (SIR) model that incorporates the effects of spatial propagation of an epidemic through a small number of additional compartments. The model is designed to capture…
Mathematical models of infectious diseases exhibit robust dynamics such as stable endemic or a disease-free equilibrium, or convergence of the solutions to periodic epidemic waves. The present work shows that the accuracy of such dynamics…
The primary goal of this research is to investigate the impact of delay on the dynamics of the Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered-Death and Susceptible (SEIRDS) model, to which we add a stochastic term to account for uncertainty in…
In this paper, we consider a stochastic model based on the Cox- Ingersoll- Ross model (CIR). The stochastic model is parameterized analytically by applying It\^o's calculus and the trend functions of the proposed process is calculated. The…