相关论文: Priors for the Bayesian star paradox

If a quantum system is prepared and later post-selected in certain states, "paradoxical" predictions for intermediate measurements can be obtained. This is the case both when the intermediate measurement is strong, i.e. a projective…

In this work, we develop an objective Bayesian framework for the Dhillon probability distribution. We explicitly derive three objective priors: the Jeffreys prior, the overall reference prior, and the maximal data information prior. We show…

In the attempt to shed new light on the lambda Boo phenomenon we analyzed the astrometric, photometric and spectroscopic characteristics of stars out of a list of recently selected lambda Boo candidates. We show that the class is still…

We study the rate of Bayesian consistency for hierarchical priors consisting of prior weights on a model index set and a prior on a density model for each choice of model index. Ghosal, Lember and Van der Vaart [2] have obtained general…

Bayesian inference and uncertainty quantification in a general class of non-linear inverse regression models is considered. Analytic conditions on the regression model $\{\mathscr G(\theta): \theta \in \Theta\}$ and on Gaussian process…

We study prior distributions for Poisson parameter estimation under $L^1$ loss. Specifically, we construct a new family of prior distributions whose optimal Bayesian estimators (the conditional medians) can be any prescribed increasing…

This paper is an invited commentary on Tamas Budavari's presentation, "On statistical cross-identification in astronomy," for the Statistical Challenges in Modern Astronomy V conference held at Pennsylvania State University in June 2011. I…

In astronomical observations, the estimation of distances from parallaxes is a challenging task due to the inherent measurement errors and the non-linear relationship between the parallax and the distance. This study leverages ideas from…

We study the gaps between consecutive prime numbers directly through Eratosthenes sieve. Using elementary methods, we identify a recursive relation for these gaps and for specific sequences of consecutive gaps, known as constellations.…

Priors in Bayesian analyses often encode informative domain knowledge that can be useful in making the inference process more efficient. Occasionally, however, priors may be unrepresentative of the parameter values for a given dataset,…

We present an error-diagnostic validation method for posterior distributions in Bayesian signal inference, an advancement of a previous work. It transfers deviations from the correct posterior into characteristic deviations from a uniform…

Especially when facing reliability data with limited information (e.g., a small number of failures), there are strong motivations for using Bayesian inference methods. These include the option to use information from physics-of-failure or…

The conventional wisdom, dating back to 2012, is that the mass distribution of Galactic double neutron stars is well-fit by a Gaussian distribution with a mean of $1.33 M_\odot$ and a width of $0.09 M_\odot$. With the recent discovery of…

The integrated spectro-photometric properties of star clusters are subject to large cluster-to-cluster variations. They are distributed in non trivial ways around the average properties predicted by standard population synthesis models.…

Estimating the difference between two binomial proportions will be investigated, where Bayesian, frequentist and fiducial (BFF) methods will be considered. Three vague priors will be used, the Jeffreys prior, a divergence prior and the…

In this article, we introduce mixture representations for likelihood ratio ordered distributions. Essentially, the ratio of two probability densities, or mass functions, is monotone if and only if one can be expressed as a mixture of…

Estimation of parameters that obey specific constraints is crucial in statistics and machine learning; for example, when parameters are required to satisfy boundedness, monotonicity, or linear inequalities. Traditional approaches impose…

Bayesian methods have become a popular way to incorporate prior knowledge and a notion of uncertainty into machine learning models. At the same time, the complexity of modern machine learning makes it challenging to comprehend a model's…

Bayesian tests on the symmetry of the generalized von Mises model for planar directions (Gatto and Jammalamadaka, 2007) are introduced. The generalized von Mises distribution is a flexible model that can be axially symmetric or asymmetric,…

We introduce non-stationary Mat\'ern field priors with stochastic partial differential equations, and construct correlation length-scaling with hyperpriors. We model both the hyperprior and the Mat\'ern prior as continuous-parameter random…