相关论文: Priors for the Bayesian star paradox

We advocate for a new statistical principle that combines the most desirable aspects of both parameter inference and density estimation. This leads us to the predictively oriented (PrO) posterior, which expresses uncertainty as a…

This paper extends the work of Clarke [1] on the Bayesian foundations of the biomagnetic inverse problem. It derives expressions for the expectation and variance of the a posteriori source current probability distribution given a prior…

A family of random probabilities is defined and studied. This family contains the Dirichlet process as a special case, corresponding to an inner point in the appropriate parameter space. The extension makes it possible to have random means…

In reliability engineering, data about failure events is often scarce. To arrive at meaningful estimates for the reliability of a system, it is therefore often necessary to also include expert information in the analysis, which is…

This thesis presents the strong and weak forms of the Banach-Tarski paradox based on the Hausdorff paradox. It provides modernized proofs of the paradoxes and necessary properties of equidecomposable and paradoxical sets. The historical…

We consider the problem of the Bayesian inference of drift and diffusion coefficient functions in a stochastic differential equation given discrete observations of a realisation of its solution. We give conditions for the well-posedness and…

Specification of the prior distribution for a Bayesian model is a central part of the Bayesian workflow for data analysis, but it is often difficult even for statistical experts. In principle, prior elicitation transforms domain knowledge…

Specifying a prior distribution is an essential part of solving Bayesian inverse problems. The prior encodes a belief on the nature of the solution and this regularizes the problem. In this article we completely characterize a Gaussian…

Peculiar measurements can be obtained on systems that undergo both pre- and post-selection. We prove a conjecture from [1] on logical Pre- and Post-Selection (PPS) paradoxes for a restricted case. We prove that all of these paradoxes admit…

For Bayesian D-optimal design, we define a singular prior distribution for the model parameters as a prior distribution such that the determinant of the Fisher information matrix has a prior geometric mean of zero for all designs. For such…

Prior distributions play a crucial role in Bayesian approaches to clustering. Two commonly-used prior distributions are the Dirichlet and Pitman-Yor processes. In this paper, we investigate the predictive probabilities that underlie these…

Bayesian inference gets its name from *Bayes's theorem*, expressing posterior probabilities for hypotheses about a data generating process as the (normalized) product of prior probabilities and a likelihood function. But Bayesian inference…

The problem of the priors is well known: it concerns the challenge of identifying norms that govern one's prior credences. I argue that a key to addressing this problem lies in considering what I call the problem of the posteriors -- the…

An imprecise Bayesian nonparametric approach to system reliability with multiple types of components is developed. This allows modelling partial or imperfect prior knowledge on component failure distributions in a flexible way through…

Many seemingly paradoxical effects are known in the predictions for outcomes of measurements made on pre- and post-selected quantum systems. A class of such effects, which we call ``logical pre- and post-selection paradoxes'', bear a…

The ratio of Bayesian evidences is a popular tool in cosmology to compare different models. There are however several issues with this method: Bayes' ratio depends on the prior even in the limit of non-informative priors, and Jeffrey's…

In this paper we show that there is a link between approximate Bayesian methods and prior robustness. We show that what is typically recognized as an approximation to the likelihood, either due to the simulated data as in the Approximate…

We generalize the results of \cite{Capistran2016} on expected Bayes factors (BF) to control the numerical error in the posterior distribution to an infinite dimensional setting when considering Banach functional spaces and now in a prior…

We survey some past conditional results on the distribution of large differences between consecutive primes and examine how the Hardy-Littlewood prime k-tuples conjecture can be applied to this question.

The abundance patterns of extremely metal-poor stars preserve a fossil record of the Universe's earliest chemical enrichment by the supernova explosions from the evolution of first generation of stars, also referred to as Population III (or…