相关论文: Priors for the Bayesian star paradox

Two paradoxical aspects of the prevailing kinetic equations are presented. One is related to the usual understanding of distribution function and the other to the usual understanding of the phase space. With help of simple counterexamples…

This work proposes a Bayesian inference method for the reduced-order modeling of time-dependent systems. Informed by the structure of the governing equations, the task of learning a reduced-order model from data is posed as a Bayesian…

The Bayesian perspective on inverse problems has attracted much mathematical attention in recent years. Particular attention has been paid to Bayesian inverse problems (BIPs) in which the parameter to be inferred lies in an…

Bayesian Inference is a powerful approach to data analysis that is based almost entirely on probability theory. In this approach, probabilities model {\it uncertainty} rather than randomness or variability. This thesis is composed of a…

Modern numerical simulations of the formation of the first stars predict that the first stars formed in multiples. In those cases, the chemical yields of multiple supernova explosions may have contributed to the formation of a next…

Recent decades have seen an interest in prediction problems for which Bayesian methodology has been used ubiquitously. Sampling from or approximating the posterior predictive distribution in a Bayesian model allows one to make inferential…

Catalytic prior distributions provide general, easy-to-use, and interpretable specifications of prior distributions for Bayesian analysis. They are particularly beneficial when the observed data are inadequate to stably estimate a complex…

Covariance matrix estimation arises in multivariate problems including multivariate normal sampling models and regression models where random effects are jointly modeled, e.g. random-intercept, random-slope models. A Bayesian analysis of…

The notions of disintegration and Bayesian inversion are fundamental in conditional probability theory. They produce channels, as conditional probabilities, from a joint state, or from an already given channel (in opposite direction). These…

We consider full Bayesian inference in the multivariate normal mean model in the situation that the mean vector is sparse. The prior distribution on the vector of means is constructed hierarchically by first choosing a collection of nonzero…

One of the key elements of probabilistic seismic risk assessment studies is the fragility curve, which represents the conditional probability of failure of a mechanical structure for a given scalar measure derived from seismic ground…

We discuss the use of the Bayesian evidence ratio, or Bayes factor, for model selection in astronomy. We treat the evidence ratio as a statistic and investigate its distribution over an ensemble of experiments, considering both simple…

Given overlapping subsets of a set of taxa (e.g. species), and posterior distributions on phylogenetic tree topologies for each of these taxon sets, how can we infer a posterior distribution on phylogenetic tree topologies for the entire…

Prior distributions for high-dimensional linear regression require specifying a joint distribution for the unobserved regression coefficients, which is inherently difficult. We instead propose a new class of shrinkage priors for linear…

Order effects occur when judgments about a hypothesis's probability given a sequence of information do not equal the probability of the same hypothesis when the information is reversed. Different experiments have been performed in the…

This paper considers the problem of making statistical inferences about a parameter when a narrow interval centred at a given value of the parameter is considered special, which is interpreted as meaning that there is a substantial degree…

In this paper, a simple explanation for the Goldbach Conjecture is given. We have shown that the probability of violating the conjecture not only for the prime numbers, but also for any subset of natural numbers whose distribution is…

It's well known that there are structure of the distribution of the nearest light stars (Herschel(1847) and Guld(1879)). Some visual phenomena which connected with numbering by brightness give possible evidence of the existence more thin…

The consistency of posterior distributions in density estimation is at the core of Bayesian statistical theory. Classical work established sufficient conditions, typically combining KL support with complexity bounds on sieves of high prior…

Directional data emerges in a wide array of applications, ranging from atmospheric sciences to medical imaging. Modeling such data, however, poses unique challenges by virtue of their being constrained to non-Euclidean spaces like…