相关论文: On resolving the Savage-Dickey paradox

The Savage-Dickey density ratio is a specific expression of the Bayes factor when testing a precise (equality constrained) hypothesis against an unrestricted alternative. The expression greatly simplifies the computation of the Bayes factor…

In this brief research note I present a generalized version of the Savage-Dickey Density Ratio for representation of the Bayes factor (or marginal likelihood ratio) of nested statistical models; the new version takes the form of a…

A core motivation of science is to evaluate which scientific model best explains observed data. Bayesian model comparison provides a principled statistical approach to comparing scientific models and has found widespread application within…

We outline a new method to compute the Bayes Factor for model selection which bypasses the Bayesian Evidence. Our method combines multiple models into a single, nested, Supermodel using one or more hyperparameters. Since the models are now…

Bayesian model selection is a tool to decide whether the introduction of a new parameter is warranted by data. I argue that the usual sampling statistic significance tests for a null hypothesis can be misleading, since they do not take into…

Garcia-Donato et al. (2025) present a methodology for handling missing data in a model selection problem using an objective Bayesian approach. The current comment discusses an alternative, existing objective Bayesian method for this…

A continuous approximation for the results of [1] is obtained. In this approximation the energy distribution is represented in the form of the product of the Gibbs factor and superstatistics factor. The mutual weights of the factors are…

In 1957, Lindley published "A statistical paradox" in Biometrika, revealing a fundamental conflict between frequentist and Bayesian inference as sample size approaches infinity. We present a new paradox of a different kind: a conflict…

A staple of Bayesian model comparison and hypothesis testing, Bayes factors are often used to quantify the relative predictive performance of two rival hypotheses. The computation of Bayes factors can be challenging, however, and this has…

The property of perfectness plays an important role in the theory of Bayesian networks. First, the existence of perfect distributions for arbitrary sets of variables and directed acyclic graphs implies that various methods for reading…

Testing the equality of two proportions is a common procedure in science, especially in medicine and public health. In these domains it is crucial to be able to quantify evidence for the absence of a treatment effect. Bayesian hypothesis…

Bayes factor sensitivity analysis examines how the evidence for one hypothesis over another depends on the prior distribution. In complex models, the standard approach refits the model at each hyper-parameter value, and the total…

Bayes factors represent the ratio of probabilities assigned to data by competing scientific hypotheses. Drawbacks of Bayes factors are their dependence on prior specifications that define null and alternative hypotheses and difficulties…

In his 1986 book, Aitchison explains that compositional data is regularly mishandled in statistical analyses, a pattern that continues to this day. The Dirichlet Type I distribution is a multivariate distribution commonly used to model a…

In the Bayesian literature on model comparison, Bayes factors play the leading role. In the classical statistical literature, model selection criteria are often devised used cross-validation ideas. Amalgamating the ideas of Bayes factor and…

We look at the distribution of the Bayesian evidence for mock realizations of supernova and baryon acoustic oscillation data. The ratios of Bayesian evidences of different models are often used to perform model selection. The significance…

With the advent of so-called default Bayesian hypothesis tests, scientists in applied fields have gained access to a powerful and principled method for testing hypotheses. However, such default tests usually come with a compromise,…

In statistical mechanics, the generally called Stirling approximation is actually an approximation of Stirling's formula. In this article, it is shown that the term that is dropped is in fact the one that takes fluctuations into account.…

Sparseness of the regression coefficient vector is often a desirable property, since, among other benefits, sparseness improves interpretability. In practice, many true regression coefficients might be negligibly small, but non-zero, which…

An overview is presented of a general theory of statistical inference that is referred to as the fiducial-Bayes fusion. This theory combines organic fiducial inference and Bayesian inference. The aim is that the reader is given a clear…