相关论文: Animal Spirits in America, April 2009
Although empirical literature regarding the Phillips curve is sizeable enough, there is still no wide consensus on its validity and stability. The literature shows that the Phillips relationship is fragile and varies across countries and…
Behavioral Finance has become a challenge to the scientific community. Based on the assumption that behavioral aspects of investors may explain some features of the Stock Market, we propose an agent based model to study quantitatively this…
A non-Bayesian time-varying model is developed by introducing the concept of the degree of market efficiency that varies over time. This model may be seen as a reflection of the idea that continuous technological progress alters the trading…
This paper will introduce a theory of emergent animal social complexity using various results from computational models and empirical results. These results will be organized into a vertical model of social complexity. This will support the…
Animals exploit time to survive in the world. Temporal information is required for higher-level cognitive abilities such as planning, decision making, communication, and effective cooperation. Since time is an inseparable part of cognition,…
Recent advances in artificial intelligence have been strongly driven by the use of game environments for training and evaluating agents. Games are often accessible and versatile, with well-defined state-transitions and goals allowing for…
A remarkable similarity in the behavior of the US S&P500 index from 1996 to August 2002 and of the Japanese Nikkei index from 1985 to 1992 (11 years shift) is presented, with particular emphasis on the structure of the bearish phases.…
In this paper we provide compelling evidence of cyclical mean reversion and multiperiod stock return predictability over horizons of about 30 years with a half-life of about 15 years. This implies that the US stock market follows a…
We provide adaptive confidence intervals on a parameter of interest in the presence of nuisance parameters when some of the nuisance parameters have known signs. The confidence intervals are adaptive in the sense that they tend to be short…
In the present paper a model of a market consisting of real and financial interacting sectors is studied. Agents populating the stock market are assumed to be not able to observe the true underlying fundamental, and their beliefs are biased…
We show in a simulation when economic agents are subject to evolution (random change and selection based on the success in the estimation of the result of the gamble) they acquire risk aversive behavior. This behavior appears in the form of…
A phenomenon of the financial log-periodicity is discussed and the characteristics that amplify its predictive potential are elaborated. The principal one is self-similarity that obeys across all the time scales. Furthermore the same…
We study the impacts of business cycles on machine learning (ML) predictions. Using the S&P 500 index, we find that ML models perform worse during most recessions, and the inclusion of recession history or the risk-free rate does not…
In this work, the time chart of Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) index is analyzed and approach of recession time term is predicted, which may be hallmark of a worldwide economic crisis. However, the methods used for the prediction will…
Financial sentiment analysis plays a crucial role in informing investment decisions, assessing market risk, and predicting stock price trends. Existing works in financial sentiment analysis have not considered the impact of stock prices or…
Optimization of human-AI teams hinges on the AI's ability to tailor its interaction to individual human teammates. A common hypothesis in adaptive AI research is that minor differences in people's predisposition to trust can significantly…
Human behavior is conditioned by codes and norms that constrain action. Rules, ``manners,'' laws, and moral imperatives are examples of classes of constraints that govern human behavior. These systems of constraints are "messy:" individual…
In the context of global warming, tree populations rely on two primary mechanisms of adaptation: phenotypic plasticity, which enables individuals to adjust their behavior in response to environmental stress, and genetic evolution, driven by…
The study efforts to explore and extend the crisis predictability by synthetically reviewing and comparing a full mixture of early warning models into two constitutions: crisis identifications and predictive models. Given empirical results…
Time perception - how humans and animals perceive the passage of time - forms the basis for important cognitive skills such as decision-making, planning, and communication. In this work, we propose a framework for examining the mechanisms…