相关论文: Animal Spirits in America, April 2009

This work presents an asset pricing model that under rational expectation equilibrium perspective shows how, depending on risk aversion and noise volatility, a risky-asset has one equilibrium price that differs in term of efficiency: an…

In a constantly changing world, animals must account for environmental volatility when making decisions. To appropriately discount older, irrelevant information, they need to learn the rate at which the environment changes. We develop an…

We develop an econometric framework integrating heavy-tailed Student's $t$ distributions with behavioral probability weighting while preserving infinite divisibility. Using 432{,}752 observations across 86 assets (2004--2024), we…

This article introduces a Hype-Adjusted Probability Measure in the context of a new Natural Language Processing (NLP) approach for stock return and volatility forecasting. A novel sentiment score equation is proposed to represent the impact…

Complex adaptive systems have been the subject of much recent attention. It is by now well-established that members (`agents') tend to self-segregate into opposing groups characterized by extreme behavior. However, while different social…

A linear link between S&P 500 return and the change rate of the number of nine-year-olds in the USA has been found. The return is represented by a sum of monthly returns during previous twelve months. The change rate of the specific age…

A key aim in biology and psychology is to identify fundamental principles underpinning the behavior of animals, including humans. Analyses of human language and the behavior of a range of non-human animal species have provided evidence for…

Do firm dynamics matter for the transmission of monetary policy? Empirically, the startup rate declines following a monetary contraction, while the exit rate increases, both of which reduce aggregate employment. I present a model that…

Metacognition -- assessing the quality of one's own cognitive performance -- guides adaptive behavior across species. Substantial research demonstrates that confidence signals can be extracted from language model outputs, yet a fundamental…

Empirical diagnosis of stability has received considerable attention, mostly focused on variance metrics for early warning signals of abrupt system change. Despite this, the theoretical foundation and application has been limited to…

Since August 2000, the stock market in the USA as well as most other western markets have depreciated almost in synchrony according to complex patterns of drops and local rebounds. In \cite{SZ02QF}, we have proposed to describe this…

In computational paralinguistics, detecting cognitive load and deception from speech signals is a heavily researched domain. Recent efforts have attempted to apply these acoustic frameworks to corporate earnings calls to predict…

We introduce a new regression method that relates the mean of an outcome variable to covariates, under the "adverse condition" that a distress variable falls in its tail. This allows to tailor classical mean regressions to adverse…

Biological intelligence is inherently adaptive -- animals continually adjust their actions based on environmental feedback. However, creating adaptive artificial intelligence (AI) remains a major challenge. The next frontier is to go beyond…

The risk-sensitive foraging theory formulated in terms of the (daily) energy budget rule has been influential in behavioural ecology as well as other disciplines. Predicting risk-aversion on positive budgets and risk-proneness on negative…

We investigate the effectiveness of different machine learning methodologies in predicting economic cycles. We identify the deep learning methodology of Bi-LSTM with Autoencoder as the most accurate model to forecast the beginning and end…

The proliferation of diverse, high-leverage trading instruments in modern financial markets presents a complex, "noisy" environment, leading to a critical question: which trading strategies are evolutionarily viable? To investigate this, we…

In a recent article the authors obtained a formula which relates explicitly the tail of risk neutral returns with the wing behavior of the Black Scholes implied volatility smile. In situations where precise tail asymptotics are unknown but…

Following the financial crisis of the late 2000s, policy makers have shown considerable interest in monitoring financial stability. Several central banks now publish indices of financial stress, which are essentially based upon market…

Designing environments that maximize the rate of emergent behavior development in AI agents remains an open problem. We present the first systematic study of stress-performance relationships in large language model (LLM) multi-agent…