相关论文: Animal Spirits in America, April 2009
We prove that Pareto theory of circulation of elites results from our wealth evolution model, Kelly criterion for optimal betting and Keynes' observation of "animal spirits" that drive the economy and cause that human financial decisions…
We formalize a macro-financial stress test for rapid AI adoption. Rather than a productivity bust or existential risk, we identify a distribution-and-contract mismatch: AI-generated abundance coexists with demand deficiency because economic…
This paper studies natural disasters and the psychological costs of climate change. It presents what we believe to be the first evidence that higher temperature variability and not a higher level of temperature is what predicts natural…
This study develops the E-Rule, a novel composite recession indicator that integrates financial market and labor market signals to improve the precision of recession forecasting. Combining the yield curve and the Sahm rule, the E-Rule…
Credit risk assessment is a crucial aspect of financial decision-making, enabling institutions to predict the likelihood of default and make informed lending decisions. Two prominent methodologies in credit risk modeling are logistic…
By integrating survival analysis, machine learning algorithms, and economic interpretation, this research examines the temporal dynamics associated with attaining a 5 percent rise in purchasing power parity-adjusted GDP per capita over a…
We demonstrate the use of Adaptive Stress Testing to detect and address potential vulnerabilities in a financial environment. We develop a simplified model for credit card fraud detection that utilizes a linear regression classifier based…
Quantifying the collision risk of birds and bats with offshore wind turbines requires an understanding of the drivers of flying animal behavior at offshore wind sites. An omnidirectional S-band radar system was deployed on a research barge…
This paper proposes a new way to model behavioral agents in dynamic macro-financial environments. Agents are described as neural networks and learn policies from idiosyncratic past experiences. I investigate the feedback between…
Sentiment analysis, widely used in product reviews, also impacts financial markets by influencing asset prices through microblogs and news articles. Despite research in sentiment-driven finance, many studies focus on sentence-level…
Large language models (LLMs) are rapidly evolving from text generators to autonomous agents, raising urgent questions about their reliability in real-world contexts. Stress and anxiety are well known to bias human decision-making,…
Depression is a debilitating mood disorder negatively impacting millions worldwide. While researchers have explored multiple verbal and non-verbal behavioural cues for automated depression assessment, head motion has received little…
Decisions taken in our everyday lives are based on a wide variety of information so it is generally very difficult to assess what are the strategies that guide us. Stock market therefore provides a rich environment to study how people take…
This paper goes into depth on the effect that US News Sentiment from national newspapers has on US interstate migration trends. Through harnessing data from the New York Times between 2010 and 2020, an average sentiment score was…
Recent developments in automated tracking allow uninterrupted, high-resolution recording of animal trajectories, sometimes coupled with the identification of stereotyped changes of body pose or other behaviors of interest. Analysis and…
Disease outbreaks in U.S. animal livestock industries have economic impacts measured in hundreds of millions of dollars per year. Biosecurity, or procedures intended to protect animals against disease, is known to be effective at reducing…
Work is fundamental to societal prosperity and mental health, providing financial security, identity, purpose, and social integration. The emergence of generative artificial intelligence (AI) has catalysed debate on job displacement. Some…
Country instability is a global issue, with unpredictably high levels of instability thwarting socio-economic growth and possibly causing a slew of negative consequences. As a result, uncertainty prediction models for a country are becoming…
Collective behaviors exhibited by animal groups, such as fish schools, bird flocks, or insect swarms are fascinating examples of self-organization in biology. Concepts and methods from statistical physics have been used to argue…
Information-theoretic quantities, such as conditional entropy and mutual information, are critical data summaries for quantifying uncertainty. Current widely used approaches for computing such quantities rely on nearest neighbor methods and…