相关论文: Animal Spirits in America, April 2009

The growing instability of both global and domestic economic environments has increased the risk of financial distress at the household level. However, traditional econometric models often rely on delayed and aggregated data, limiting their…

The three-state agent-based 2D model of financial markets in the version proposed by Giulia Iori in 2002 has been herein extended. We have introduced the increase of herding behaviour by modelling the altering trust of an agent in his…

Prediction and quantification of future volatility and returns play an important role in financial modelling, both in portfolio optimization and risk management. Natural language processing today allows to process news and social media…

Recent advances in the fields of machine learning and neurofinance have yielded new exciting research perspectives in practical inference of behavioural economy in financial markets and microstructure study. We here present the latest…

The forecasting of the credit default risk has been an important research field for several decades. Traditionally, logistic regression has been widely recognized as a solution due to its accuracy and interpretability. As a recent trend,…

The recent empirical work of Amaya et al. (2015) has pointed out that the realized skewness, which is the sample skewness of intraday high-frequency returns of a financial asset, serves as forecasting future returns in the cross-section.…

Animals learn to adapt speed of their movements to their capabilities and the environment they observe. Mobile robots should also demonstrate this ability to trade-off aggressiveness and safety for efficiently accomplishing tasks. The aim…

Even the simplest of animals exhibit behavioral sequences with complex temporal dynamics. Prominent amongst the proposed organizing principles for these dynamics has been the idea of a hierarchy, wherein the movements an animal makes can be…

We present a general methodology to incorporate fundamental economic factors to our previous theory of herding to describe bubbles and antibubbles. We start from the strong form of Rational Expectation and derive the general method to…

Humans learn from catastrophic mistakes not through numerical penalties, but through qualitative suffering that reshapes who they are. Current AI safety approaches replicate none of this. Reward shaping captures magnitude, not meaning.…

Previous research has demonstrated that specific states of the climate system can lead to enhanced subseasonal predictability (i.e., state-dependent predictability). However, biases in Earth system models can affect the representation of…

This paper presents a simple agent-based model of an economic system, populated by agents playing different games according to their different view about social cohesion and tax payment. After a first set of simulations, correctly…

Although extensive behavioral changes often exist between closely related animal species, our understanding of the genetic basis underlying the evolution of behavior has remained limited. Here, we propose a new framework to study behavioral…

Living systems such as neuronal networks and animal groups process information about their environment via the dynamics of interacting units. These can transition between distinct macroscopic behaviors. Near such a transition (or critical…

The price fluctuations in the financial markets are the result of the individual operations by many individual investors. However for many decades the finacial theory did not use directly this "microscopic representation". The difficulties…

Active sensing is traditionally defined as the expenditure of energy, typically in the form of movement, for obtaining information. Here, we propose that the combination of reliance on adaptive sensors, the linkage between movement and…

This paper introduces a novel approach to quantifying ecological resilience in biological systems, particularly focusing on noisy systems responding to episodic disturbances with sudden adaptations. Incorporating concepts from…

The study and measurement of economic resilience is ruled by high level of complexity related to the diverse structure, functionality, spatiality, and dynamics describing economic systems. Towards serving the demand of integration, this…

This note focuses on the optimization of neural architectures for stock index movement forecasting following a major market disruption or crisis. Given that such crises may introduce a shift in market dynamics, this study aims to…

This paper discusses a novel explanation for asymmetric volatility based on the anchoring behavioral pattern. Anchoring as a heuristic bias causes investors focusing on recent price changes and price levels, which two lead to a belief in…