相关论文: Modeling Human Dynamics with Adaptive Interest

Power laws and distributions with heavy tails are common features of many experimentally studied complex systems, like the distribution of the sizes of earthquakes and solar flares, or the duration of neuronal avalanches in the brain.…

Statistical distributions with heavy tails are ubiquitous in natural and social phenomena. Since the entries in heavy tail have disproportional significance, the knowledge of its exact shape is very important. Citations of scientific papers…

We study three non-equivalent queueing models in continuous time that each generalise the classical M/M/1 queue in a different way. Inter-event times in all models are Mittag-Leffler distributed, which is a heavy tail distribution with no…

Interevent times have been studied across various disciplines in search for correlations. In this paper we show analytical and numerical evidence that at the population level a power-law can be obtained by assuming poissonian agents with…

We develop an econometric framework integrating heavy-tailed Student's $t$ distributions with behavioral probability weighting while preserving infinite divisibility. Using 432{,}752 observations across 86 assets (2004--2024), we…

We study the large-time asymptotic of renewal-reward processes with a heavy-tailed waiting time distribution. It is known that the heavy tail of the distribution produces an extremely slow dynamics, resulting in a singular large deviation…

We consider Stochastic Volatility processes with heavy tails and possible long memory in volatility. We study the limiting conditional distribution of future events given that some present or past event was extreme (i.e. above a level which…

In search of many social and economical systems, it is found that node strength distribution as well as degree distribution demonstrate the behavior of power-law with droop-head and heavy-tail. We present a new model for the growth of…

Abel-Tauberian theorems relate power law behavior of distributions and their transforms. We formulate and prove a multivariate version for non-standard regularly varying measures on $\mathbb{R}_+^p$ and then apply it to prove that the joint…

We develop an unsupervised mixture model for non-negative, skewed and heavy-tailed data, such as losses in actuarial and risk management applications. The mixture has a lognormal component, which is usually appropriate for the body of the…

People often deviate from expected utility theory when making risky and intertemporal choices. While the effects of probabilistic risk and time delay have been extensively studied in isolation, their interplay and underlying theoretical…

This paper studies stochastic mechanisms under which light-tailed latent price dynamics yield realized prices with power-law tails. The realized price is modeled as $P_T=e^{X_T}$, where $X$ is a Markov-modulated L\'evy process and $T$ is…

Modern health data science applications leverage abundant molecular and electronic health data, providing opportunities for machine learning to build statistical models to support clinical practice. Time-to-event analysis, also called…

Explaining empirically observed wealth and income distributions, featuring power-law tails alongside gamma or log-normal bulk shapes, challenges models that focus on either pairwise competition or individual investment mechanisms. This…

We propose a mean functional which exists for any probability distributions, and which characterizes the Pareto distribution within the set of distributions with finite left endpoint. This is in sharp contrast to the mean excess plot which…

We consider a multivariate heavy-tailed stochastic volatility model and analyze the large-sample behavior of its sample covariance matrix. We study the limiting behavior of its entries in the infinite-variance case and derive results for…

The increasing availability of large-scale data on human behavior has catalyzed simultaneous advances in network theory, capturing the scaling properties of the interactions between a large number of individuals, and human dynamics,…

The study of relational events, which are interactions occurring between actors over time, has gained significant traction recently. Traditional relational event models typically focus on modelling the occurrence and sequence of events…

We examine the performance of six estimators of the power-law cross-correlations -- the detrended cross-correlation analysis, the detrending moving-average cross-correlation analysis, the height cross-correlation analysis, the averaged…

A novel model of intermittency is presented in which the dynamics of the rates of energy transfer between successive steps in the energy cascade is described by a hierarchy of stochastic differential equations. The probability distribution…