经济学

We study actual bidding behavior when a new auction format gets introduced into the marketplace. More specifically, we investigate this question using a novel dataset on internet display advertising auctions that exploits a staggered…

We develop a general estimation and inference procedure for the common parameters in linear panel data regression models with nonparametric two-way specification of unobserved heterogeneity. The procedure takes as input any first-step…

Municipal 311 call centers and complaint intake systems face a structural mismatch between incoming volume and classification capacity. The staff and heuristics available to triage, route, and prioritize complaints cannot scale with demand.…

This position paper argues that, in debiased machine learning, balancing functions should be derived from the Neyman orthogonal score, not chosen only as functions of covariates. Covariate balancing is effective when the regression error…

Migration is reshaping demographic landscapes across Europe, raising urgent questions about adapting to rapid population changes. This study examines the canton of Fribourg, Switzerland, which experienced a 30% population increase over the…

Aesthetic qualities command measurable premiums in traditional goods markets. However, it remains unclear whether users are willing to pay for such qualities in AI-generated text. This paper estimates the willingness to pay for aesthetic…

Counterfactual utilities evaluate decisions not only by the realized outcome under a given decision, but also by the counterfactual outcomes that would arise under alternative decisions. By generalizing standard utility frameworks, they…

Local projections (LP) and vector autoregressions (VAR) are the two standard tools for impulse response analysis, but they often display a finite-sample trade-off: LP is typically less biased but more volatile, while VAR is more precise but…

This paper develops efficient GMM estimation when the moment conditions are misspecified. We observe that the influence function of the standard GMM estimator under misspecification depends on both the original moment conditions and their…

This paper studies how the possibility of strategic misreporting shapes endogenous communication networks. Agents observe noisy private signals about a common state, form costly communication links, exchange private messages with their…

We document the rise of negative earnings between 1980 and 2019: a secular increase in the percent of firms reporting losses, both among public firms and in the broader universe of US corporations, and a secular increase in the persistence…

Can Large Language Models (AI agents) aggregate dispersed private information through trading and reason about the knowledge of others by observing price movements? We conduct a controlled experiment where AI agents trade in a prediction…

Using on-chain Polygon data, we analyze Polymarket's 2024 U.S. Presidential Election market and develop a transaction-level accounting framework with two components: a volume decomposition that separates exchange-equivalent turnover from…

The race for artificial intelligence (AI) dominance often prioritizes scale over efficiency. Hyper-scaling is the common industry approach: larger models, more data, and as many computational resources as possible. Using more resources is a…

This article introduces a leave-one-out regression adjustment (LOORA) for estimating average treatment effects in randomized controlled trials. In finite samples, LOORA removes the bias of conventional regression adjustment and yields exact…

A key challenge for targeted antipoverty programs in developing countries is that policymakers must rely on estimated rather than observed income, which leads to substantial targeting errors. The policy problem is not only to predict…

Elites disproportionately influence policymaking, yet little is known about their fairness and efficiency preferences -- key determinants of support for redistributive policies. We investigate these preferences in an incentivized lab…

This paper proposes a novel method to generate bid bounds that can serve as offer caps for energy storage in electricity markets to help reduce system costs and regulate potential market power exercises. We derive the bid bounds based on a…

We propose a new estimator for the Generalised Dynamic Factor Model (GDFM) that simplifies estimation by avoiding frequency-domain methods. Our key theoretical insight shows that under reasonable conditions the dynamic common component can…

First-nature geography shapes the location of prosperity. I provide evidence by investigating the effects when it suddenly changes. In 1825 a storm breached the Agger Isthmus. This connected Denmark's west Limfjord Region to the North Sea.…