经济学

Average forecast accuracy is not the same as forecast reliability. I treat forecast loss differentials relative to a benchmark as a return series. I then evaluate these returns using risk-adjusted performance measures from finance,…

Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky argued for challenging inside views (informed by contextual specifics) with outside views (based on historical "base rates" for certain event types). A reasonable inside view of the prospects for the global…

This paper introduces the concept of Engineering Economy as a new paradigm for understanding and managing macroeconomic policy in middle-income countries seeking to escape the middle-income trap. Drawing on Turkiye's post-2001 economic…

Noise traders can be dispensed with entirely. Partial revelation of information through prices arises under any non-exponential expected utility preference, including CRRA, without noise traders, random endowments, supply shocks, hedging…

Many economic interventions are designed as marginal changes in incentives. Yet in environments shaped by coordination, institutional persistence, and path dependence, such reforms often leave behavior largely unchanged. This paper studies…

Communication is secret if a message is independent of the state; however, the receiver's subsequent action may still reveal that she has acted on hidden information. This paper studies when secret communication can also provide plausible…

Many environments assign several Elo ratings to the same agent: a chess player has classical, rapid, and blitz ratings; an online platform may rate by time control, mode, or format; an evaluator may rate performance across tasks or roles.…

The Spanish Price Revolution is usually treated as a classic case in which American bullion inflows expanded the money supply and generated inflation. This view captures the first phase of the episode but fails to explain why the same…

This paper assesses whether NASA Black Marble nightlight intensity can serve as an early indicator of annual taxable income at the Italian municipal level, where official data are released with a 12--18 month lag. Using a panel of 7{,}631…

Empirical Bayes methods can improve inference on unobservable individual effects by borrowing strength across units. This paper proposes nonparametric empirical Bayes confidence intervals (NP-EBCIs) for unobservable individual effects in a…

This paper studies how the organization of production shapes democratic accountability. I propose a model in which learning economies make specialization productively efficient: most workers perform one-domain tasks, while a small set of…

Sampled network data are widely used in empirical research because collecting complete network information is costly. However, empirical analyses based on sampled networks may lead to biased estimators. We propose a nonparametric imputation…

We conduct a pre-registered randomized controlled trial to test for income targeting in labor supply decisions among sellers of a Swedish street paper. Unlike most workers, these sellers choose their own hours and face severe liquidity…

Behavioral parameters such as loss aversion, herding, and extrapolation are central to asset pricing models but remain difficult to measure reliably. We develop a framework that treats large language models (LLMs) as calibrated measurement…

We propose a methodology to construct tests for the null hypothesis that the pricing errors of a panel of asset returns are jointly equal to zero in a linear factor asset pricing model -- that is, the null of "zero alpha". We consider, as a…

Randomization inference is a widely-used and appealing approach for analyzing treatment effects in randomized experiments, as it is finite-sample valid and does not require any distributional assumptions. However, naive application of…

We present a novel framework for high-resolution forecasting of residential heating demand and non-heating electricity demand using probabilistic deep learning models. Because our models are trained on electricity consumption from a…

This paper analyzes a cheap-talk model with multiple senders and one receiver. Each sender observes a noisy signal about an unknown state and sends a message; the receiver observes the message tally and chooses a policy. This setting shares…

This paper studies preference aggregation under uncertainty in the multi-profile framework and characterizes a new class of aggregation rules that address classical concerns about Harsanyi's (1955) utilitarian rules. Our aggregation rules,…

We develop a new approach for quantifying uncertainty in finite populations, by using design distributions to calibrate sensitivity parameters in finite population identified sets. This yields uncertainty intervals that can be interpreted…