概率论

In this paper, we investigate the asymptotic behavior of nearly unstable Hawkes processes whose regression kernel has $L^1$ norm strictly greater than one and close to one as time goes to infinity. We find that,the scaling size determines…

We consider uniformly random strictly upper-triangular matrices in $\operatorname{Mat}_n(\mathbb{F}_q)$. For such a matrix $A_n$, we show that $n-\operatorname{rank}(A_n) \approx \log_q n$ as $n \to \infty$, and find that the fluctuations…

We study a variant of the classical Markovian logistic SIS epidemic model on a complete graph, which has the additional feature that healthy individuals can become infected without contacting an infected member of the population. This…

In this paper, we study asymptotic behaviors of a subcritical branching killed Brownian motion with drift $-\rho$ and offspring distribution $\{p_k:k\ge 0\}$. Let $\widetilde{\zeta}^{-\rho}$ be the extinction time of this subcritical…

We investigate the possibility of defining meaningful upper and lower quantization dimensions for a compactly supported Borel probability measure of order $r$, including negative values of $r$. To this end, we use the concept of partition…

We show that the Potts model on a graph can be approximated by a sequence of independent and identically distributed spins in terms of Wasserstein distance at high temperatures. We prove a similar result for the Curie--Weiss--Potts model on…

A general setting for nested subdivisions of a bounded real set into intervals defining the digits $X_1,X_2,...$ of a random variable $X$ with a probability density function $f$ is considered. Under the weak condition that $f$ is almost…

The hard-core model has as its configurations the independent sets of some graph instance $G$. The probability distribution on independent sets is controlled by a `fugacity' $\lambda>0$, with higher $\lambda$ leading to denser…

Sharp, nonasymptotic bounds are obtained for the relative entropy between the distributions of sampling with and without replacement from an urn with balls of $c\geq 2$ colors. Our bounds are asymptotically tight in certain regimes and,…

We establish large deviations for dynamical Schr\"{o}dinger problems driven by perturbed Brownian motions when the noise parameter tends to zero. Our results show that Schr\"{o}dinger bridges charge exponentially small masses outside the…

We prove dynamical local limits for the singular numbers of $p$-adic random matrix products at both the bulk and edge. The limit object which we construct, the reflecting Poisson sea, may thus be viewed as a $p$-adic analogue of line…

We study backward stochastic difference equations (BS{\Delta}E) driven by a d-dimensional stochastic process on a lattice whose increments have only d + 1 possible values that generates the lattice. Regarding the driving process as a d…

We study a system consisting of $n$ particles, moving forward in jumps on the real line. Each particle can make both independent jumps, whose sizes have some distribution, or ``synchronization'' jumps, which allow it to join a randomly…

The limit free energy of spin-glass models with convex interactions can be represented as a variational problem involving an explicit functional. Models with non-convex interactions are much less well-understood, and simple variational…

We study a continuous time Mutually Catalytic Branching model on the $\mathbb{Z}^{d}$. The model describes the behavior of two different populations of particles, performing random walk on the lattice in the presence of branching, that is,…

This paper concerns an insurance firm's surplus process observed at renewal inspection times, with a focus on assessing the probability of the surplus level dropping below zero. For various types of inter-inspection time distributions, an…

In this paper we extend results on reconstruction of probabilistic supports of random i.i.d variables to supports of dependent stationary $\mathbb R^d$-valued random variables. All supports are assumed to be compact of positive reach in…

Consider a branching random walk on the real line with a random environment in time (BRWRE). A necessary and sufficient condition for the non-triviality of the limit of the derivative martingale is formulated. To this end, we investigate…

We present a detailed analysis of random motions moving in higher spaces with a natural number of velocities. In the case of the so-called minimal random dynamics, under some wide assumptions, we show the joint distribution of the position…

We study the tail asymptotics of two functionals (the maximum and the sum of the marks) of a generic cluster in two sub-models of the marked Poisson cluster process, namely the renewal Poisson cluster process and the Hawkes process. Under…