多人选区计票记录的统计研究：识别选举舞弊与重建投票回报
物理与社会
2026-04-17 v2
摘要
我们提出了新的选举统计方法。借助这些方法，我们研究了市政选举中的计票记录。我们构建并应用了有效的统计检验，以在单个候选人和选票整体层面上检测选票造假。我们研究了针对行政方和反对派的伪造行为之间的差异。我们构建了评估计票记录整体可信度的指标。我们提出了一个选民行为模型，以在单个选区层面重建多人投票的结果。我们对重建结果进行了独立验证。
引用
@article{arxiv.2509.00118,
title = {Statistical study of the transcript of vote counts in multi-member constituencies: Identifying electoral fraud and reconstructing voting returns},
author = {Andrey V. Podlazov and Vadim Makarov},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2509.00118},
year = {2026}
}
备注
Noted a limitation of our reconstruction model that (in this particular case) underestimates votes for the opposition. The model assumption that the sum of political orientations of the candidates is zero does not hold in practice, precluding an accurate reconstruction. The rest of the manuscript is unaffected. In Russian. 34 pages, in Russian language, 5 figures, 12 tables