相关论文: Jeffreys priors versus experienced physicist prior…

While Jeffreys priors usually are well-defined for the parameters of mixtures of distributions, they are not available in closed form. Furthermore, they often are improper priors. Hence, they have never been used to draw inference on the…

The intuitive reasoning of physicists in conditions of uncertainty is closer to the Bayesian approach than to the frequentist ideas taught at University and which are considered the reference framework for handling statistical problems. The…

Specifying a Bayesian prior is notoriously difficult for complex models such as neural networks. Reasoning about parameters is made challenging by the high-dimensionality and over-parameterization of the space. Priors that seem benign and…

In quantum Bayesian inference problems, any conclusions drawn from a finite number of measurements depend not only on the outcomes of the measurements but also on a prior. Here we show that, in general, the prior remains important even in…

This report introduces general ideas and some basic methods of the Bayesian probability theory applied to physics measurements. Our aim is to make the reader familiar, through examples rather than rigorous formalism, with concepts such as:…

We discuss Bayesian inference for parameters selected using the data. First, we provide a critical analysis of the existing positions in the literature regarding the correct Bayesian approach under selection. Second, we propose two types of…

While the choice of prior is one of the most critical parts of the Bayesian inference workflow, recent Bayesian deep learning models have often fallen back on vague priors, such as standard Gaussians. In this review, we highlight the…

This paper discusses the dual interpretation of the Jeffreys--Lindley's paradox associated with Bayesian posterior probabilities and Bayes factors, both as a differentiation between frequentist and Bayesian statistics and as a pointer to…

Motivated by the statistical evaluation of complex computer models, we deal with the issue of objective prior specification for the parameters of Gaussian processes. In particular, we derive the Jeffreys-rule, independence Jeffreys and…

We discuss how the apparently objective probabilities predicted by quantum mechanics can be treated in the framework of Bayesian probability theory, in which all probabilities are subjective. Our results are in accord with earlier work by…

In Bayesian theory, the role of information is central. The influence exerted by prior information on posterior outcomes often jeopardizes Bayesian studies, due to the potentially subjective nature of the prior choice. In modeling where a…

For many years it was routine to use equal model prior probabilities in Bayesian model uncertainty analysis. At least twenty years ago it became clear that this was problematic, leading to support of much too large models in the…

We argue that it would be desirable to use Jeffreys' priors in the construction of numerical model based probabilistic climate forecasts, in order that those forecasts could be argued to be objective. Hitherto, this has been considered…

Frequentist (classical) and the Bayesian approaches to the construction of confidence limits are compared. Various examples which illustrate specific problems are presented. The Likelihood Principle and the Stopping Rule Paradox are…

Reference analysis produces objective Bayesian inference, in the sense that inferential statements depend only on the assumed model and the available data, and the prior distribution used to make an inference is least informative in a…

We use the language of uninformative Bayesian prior choice to study the selection of appropriately simple effective models. We advocate for the prior which maximizes the mutual information between parameters and predictions, learning as…

Recently, several researchers have claimed that conclusions obtained from a Bayes factor (or the posterior odds) may contradict those obtained from Bayesian posterior estimation. In this short paper, we wish to point out that no such…

Objective prior distributions represent an important tool that allows one to have the advantages of using the Bayesian framework even when information about the parameters of a model is not available. The usual objective approaches work off…

Recently, optional stopping has been a subject of debate in the Bayesian psychology community. Rouder (2014) argues that optional stopping is no problem for Bayesians, and even recommends the use of optional stopping in practice, as do…

After making some general remarks, I consider two examples that illustrate the use of Bayesian Probability Theory. The first is a simple one, the physicist's favorite "toy," that provides a forum for a discussion of the key conceptual issue…