相关论文: Jeffreys priors versus experienced physicist prior…

Bayes Factors, the Bayesian tool for hypothesis testing, are receiving increasing attention in the literature. Compared to their frequentist rivals ($p$-values or test statistics), Bayes Factors have the conceptual advantage of providing…

The aim of this paper is to firmly establish subjective fiducial inference as a rival to the more conventional schools of statistical inference, and to show that Fisher's intuition concerning the importance of the fiducial argument was…

The beliefs of physicists can bias their results towards their expectations in a number of ways. We survey a variety of historical cases of expectation bias in observations, experiments, and calculations.

In a Bayesian context, prior specification for inference on monotone densities is conceptually straightforward, but proving posterior convergence theorems is complicated by the fact that desirable prior concentration properties often are…

We introduce a new class of priors for Bayesian hypothesis testing, which we name "cake priors". These priors circumvent Bartlett's paradox (also called the Jeffreys-Lindley paradox); the problem associated with the use of diffuse priors…

Most computational approaches to Bayesian experimental design require making posterior calculations repeatedly for a large number of potential designs and/or simulated datasets. This can be expensive and prohibit scaling up these methods to…

There are three principle paradigms of statistical inference: (i) Bayesian, (ii) information-based and (iii) frequentist inference. We describe an objective prior (the weighting or $w$-prior) which unifies objective Bayes and…

This paper deals with Bayesian inference of a mixture of Gaussian distributions. A novel formulation of the mixture model is introduced, which includes the prior constraint that each Gaussian component is always assigned a minimal number of…

The present article is the reply to the discussion of our earlier "Not only defended but also applied" (arXiv:1006.5366, to appear in The American Statistician) that arose from our memory of a particularly intemperate anti-Bayesian…

There is a growing interest in the analysis of replication studies of original findings across many disciplines. When testing a hypothesis for an effect size, two Bayesian approaches stand out for their principled use of the Bayes factor…

Inferring the value of a property of a large stochastic system is a difficult task when the number of samples is insufficient to reliably estimate the probability distribution. The Bayesian estimator of the property of interest requires the…

This paper considers the problem of making statistical inferences about a parameter when a narrow interval centred at a given value of the parameter is considered special, which is interpreted as meaning that there is a substantial degree…

Gyenis and Redei have demonstrated that any prior p on a finite algebra, however chosen, severely restricts the set of posteriors accessible from p by Jeffrey conditioning on a nontrivial partition. Their demonstration involves showing that…

We propose a two-component mixture of a noninformative (diffuse) and an informative prior distribution, weighted through the data in such a way to prefer the first component if a prior-data conflict arises. The data-driven approach for…

The problem of combining the evidence concerning an unknown, contained in each of $k$ Bayesian inference bases, is discussed. This can be considered as a generalization of the problem of pooling $k$ priors to determine a consensus prior.…

Parametric complexity is a central concept in MDL model selection. In practice it often turns out to be infinite, even for quite simple models such as the Poisson and Geometric families. In such cases, MDL model selection as based on NML…

Inferences about hypotheses are ubiquitous in the cognitive sciences. Bayes factors provide one general way to compare different hypotheses by their compatibility with the observed data. Those quantifications can then also be used to choose…

We distinguish two questions (i) how much information does the prior contain? and (ii) what is the effect of the prior? Several measures have been proposed for quantifying effective prior sample size, for example Clarke [1996] and Morita et…

Reference priors are theoretically attractive for the analysis of geostatistical data since they enable automatic Bayesian analysis and have desirable Bayesian and frequentist properties. But their use is hindered by computational hurdles…

Familiar statistical tests and estimates are obtained by the direct observation of cases of interest: a clinical trial of a new drug, for instance, will compare the drug's effects on a relevant set of patients and controls. Sometimes,…