A new method for making objective probabilistic climate forecasts from numerical climate models based on Jeffreys' Prior
Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics
2009-08-31 v1
Abstract
We argue that it would be desirable to use Jeffreys' priors in the construction of numerical model based probabilistic climate forecasts, in order that those forecasts could be argued to be objective. Hitherto, this has been considered computationally unfeasible. We propose an approximation that we believe makes it feasible, and derive closed-form expressions for various simple cases.
Cite
@article{arxiv.0908.4207,
title = {A new method for making objective probabilistic climate forecasts from numerical climate models based on Jeffreys' Prior},
author = {Stephen Jewson and Dan Rowlands and Myles Allen},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:0908.4207},
year = {2009}
}