相关论文: Martingales, Detrending Data, and the Efficient Ma…

The dissipation of general convex entropies for continuous time Markov processes can be described in terms of backward martingales with respect to the tail filtration. The relative entropy is the expected value of a backward submartingale.…

Incomplete financial markets are considered, defined by a multi-dimensional non-homogeneous diffusion process, being the direct sum of an It\^{o} process (the price process), and another non-homogeneous diffusion process (the exogenous…

In this paper we develop non-stationary martingale techniques for dependent data. We shall stress the non-stationary version of the projective Maxwell-Woodroofe condition, which will be essential for obtaining maximal inequalities and…

Some classes of increment martingales, and the corresponding localized classes, are studied. An increment martingale is indexed by the real line and its increment processes are martingales. We focus primarily on the behavior as time goes to…

We study a financial market where the risky asset is modelled by a geometric It\^o-L\'{e}vy process, with a singular drift term. This can for example model a situation where the asset price is partially controlled by a company which…

Uncertainty associated with statistical problems arises due to what has not been seen as opposed to what has been seen. Using probability to quantify the uncertainty the task is to construct a probability model for what has not been seen…

We investigate Wiener-transformable markets, where the driving process is given by an adapted transformation of a Wiener process. This includes processes with long memory, like fractional Brownian motion and related processes, and, in…

This paper studies a portfolio optimization problem in a discrete-time Markovian model of a financial market, in which asset price dynamics depend on an external process of economic factors. There are transaction costs with a structure that…

In this paper, we extend the results of Elliott and Yang \cite{elliott3} and discuss the control of a stochastic process for which the driving noise is provided by a martingale associated with a semi-Markov Chain. An existence and a…

We derive consistency and asymptotic normality results for quasi-maximum likelihood methods for drift parameters of ergodic stochastic processes observed in discrete time in an underlying continuous-time setting. The special feature of our…

Let $\mathfrak{z}$ be a stochastic exponential, i.e., $\mathfrak{z}_t=1+\int_0^t\mathfrak{z}_{s-}dM_s$, of a local martingale $M$ with jumps $\triangle M_t>-1$. Then $\mathfrak{z}$ is a nonnegative local martingale with $\E\mathfrak{z}_t\le…

We consider a stochastic volatility model with jumps where the underlying asset price is driven by the process sum of a 2-dimensional Brownian motion and a 2-dimensional compensated Poisson process. The market is incomplete, resulting in…

In the context of Markov evolution, we present two original approaches to obtain Generalized Fluctuation-Dissipation Theorems (GFDT), by using the language of stochastic derivatives and by using a family of exponential martingales…

Markov jump processes are continuous-time stochastic processes with a wide range of applications in both natural and social sciences. Despite their widespread use, inference in these models is highly non-trivial and typically proceeds via…

The Efficient Market Hypothesis has been a staple of economics research for decades. In particular, weak-form market efficiency -- the notion that past prices cannot predict future performance -- is strongly supported by econometric…

We consider the randomness of market trade as the origin of price and return stochasticity. We look at time series of trade values and volumes as random variables during the averaging interval {\Delta} and describe the dependences of…

Volatility, as a primary indicator of financial risk, forms the foundation of classical frameworks such as Markowitz's Portfolio Theory and the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH). However, its conventional use rests on assumptions-most…

The continuous-time random walk (CTRW) is a pure-jump stochastic process with several applications in physics, but also in insurance, finance and economics. A definition is given for a class of stochastic integrals driven by a CTRW, that…

This paper develops techniques to study the number of descents in random permutations via martingales. We relax an assumption in the Berry-Esseen theorem of Bolthausen (1982) to extend the theorem's scope to martingale differences of…

In this paper, we consider daily financial data of a collection of different stock market indices, exchange rates, and interest rates, and we analyze their multi-scaling properties by estimating a simple specification of the…