相关论文: Predicting Baseball Home Run Records Using Exponen…

We present a tractable framework for detecting changes in performance metrics and apply these methods to Major League Baseball (MLB) batting and pitching data from the 2023 and 2024 seasons. We propose a changepoint detection algorithm that…

We present a simple, pedagogical introduction to the statistics of extreme values. Motivated by a string of record high temperatures in December 1998, we consider the distribution, averages and lifetimes for a simplified model of such…

Runs Batted IN (RBI) records the number of runs a hitter directly drives in during their plate appearances and reflects a batter's ability to convert opportunities into scoring. Because producing runs determines game outcomes, RBI has long…

We review recent advances on the record statistics of strongly correlated time series, whose entries denote the positions of a random walk or a L\'evy flight on a line. After a brief survey of the theory of records for independent and…

In recent years there has been a surge of interest in the statistics of record-breaking events in stochastic processes. Along with that, many new and interesting applications of the theory of records were discovered and explored. The record…

The field of quantitative analytics has transformed the world of sports over the last decade. To date, these analytic approaches are statistical at their core, characterizing what is and what was, while using this information to drive…

In this paper we propose a new lifetime model, called the odd generalized exponential linear failure rate distribution. Some statistical properties of the proposed distribution such as the moments, the quantiles, the median, and the mode…

We use multivariate change point analysis methods, to identify not only mean shifts but also changes in variance across a wide array of statistical time series. Our primary objective is to empirically discern distinct eras in the evolution…

In a recent paper in this journal [J. Stat. Mech. (2009) P02037] we proposed a new, physically motivated, distribution function for modeling individual incomes having its roots in the framework of the k-generalized statistical mechanics.…

We address the value of a baserunner at first base waiting to see if a ball in play falls in for a hit, before running. When a ball is hit in the air, the baserunner will usually wait, to gather additional information as to whether a ball…

In this paper we study the distribution of hitting and return times for observations of dynamical systems. We apply this results to get an exponential law for the distribution of hitting and return times for rapidly mixing random dynamical…

Bill James invented the Pythagorean expectation in the late 70's to predict a baseball team's winning percentage knowing just their runs scored and allowed. His original formula estimates a winning percentage of ${\rm RS}^2/({\rm RS}^2+{\rm…

The phenomenology of turbulent relative dispersion is revisited. A heuristic scenario is proposed, in which pairs of tracers undergo a succession of independent ballistic separations during time intervals whose lengths fluctuate. This…

Forecasting technological progress is of great interest to engineers, policy makers, and private investors. Several models have been proposed for predicting technological improvement, but how well do these models perform? An early…

We study the statistics of records of a one-dimensional random walk of n steps, starting from the origin, and in presence of a constant bias c. At each time-step the walker makes a random jump of length \eta drawn from a continuous…

A common problem faced in statistical inference is drawing conclusions from paired comparisons, in which two objects compete and one is declared the victor. A probabilistic approach to such a problem is the Bradley-Terry model, first…

Based on two very large samples of repeating fast radio bursts (FRBs), i.e. FRB 20121102A and FRB 20201124A observed by the FAST telescope, we study the statistical properties of energy and waiting time. The bent power-law (BPL) model,…

Consider the problem of modeling memory effects in discrete-state random walks using higher-order Markov chains. This paper explores cross validation and information criteria as proxies for a model's predictive accuracy. Our objective is to…

The statistical properties of energy and waiting time carry essential information about the source of repeating fast radio bursts (FRBs). In this paper, we investigate the randomness of energy and waiting time using four data samples from…

Real-time probability forecasts for binary outcomes are routine in sports, online experimentation, medicine, and finance. Retrospective narratives, however, often hinge on pathwise extremes: for example, a forecast that becomes "90%…