Tractable Algorithms for Changepoint Detection in Player Performance Metrics
Abstract
We present a tractable framework for detecting changes in performance metrics and apply these methods to Major League Baseball (MLB) batting and pitching data from the 2023 and 2024 seasons. We propose a changepoint detection algorithm that combines a likelihood-based approach with split-sample inference to better control false positives, using either nonparametric tests or tests appropriate to the underlying data distribution. These tests incorporate a shift parameter, allowing users to specify the minimum magnitude of change to detect. We demonstrate the utility of this approach across simulation studies and several baseball applications: detecting changes in batter plate discipline metrics (e.g., chase and whiff rate), identifying velocity changes in pitcher fastballs, and validating velocity changepoints against a curated quasi-ground-truth dataset of pitchers who transitioned from relief to starting roles. Our method flags meaningful changes in 91% of these "ground-truth" cases and reveals that, for some metrics, more than 60% of detected changes occur in-season. While developed for baseball, the proposed framework is broadly applicable to any setting involving monitoring of individual performance over time.
Cite
@article{arxiv.2510.25961,
title = {Tractable Algorithms for Changepoint Detection in Player Performance Metrics},
author = {Amanda Glazer},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2510.25961},
year = {2026}
}