相关论文: Predicting Baseball Home Run Records Using Exponen…
We compute exactly the mean number of records $\langle R_N \rangle$ for a time-series of size $N$ whose entries represent the positions of a discrete time random walker on the line. At each time step, the walker jumps by a length $\eta$…
We examine whether social data can be used to predict how members of Major League Baseball (MLB) and members of the National Basketball Association (NBA) transition between teams during their career. We find that incorporating social data…
The runs test is a well-known test that is used for checking independence between elements of a sample data sequence. Some of runs tests are based on the longest run and others based on the total runs. In this paper, we consider order…
This article identifies the factors that drove house prices in 13 advanced countries over the past 35 years. It does so based on Breiman s (2001) random forest model. Shapley values indicate that annual house price growth across countries…
We study the asymptotic behavior of the ratio of total return (or total profit) to total amount bet in a casino game. While the limit is well understood when the sequence of wagers is independent and identically distributed, here we…
Estimation of the parameters of an exponential distribution based on record data has been treated by Samaniego and Whitaker (1986) and Doostparast (2009). Recently, Doostparast and Balakrishnan (2011) obtained optimal confidence intervals…
In the National Basketball Association (NBA), teams must make choices about which players to acquire, how much to pay them, and other decisions that are fundamentally dependent on player effectiveness. Thus, there is great interest in…
Evaluating rare-event forecasts is challenging because standard metrics collapse as event prevalence declines. Measures such as F1-score, AUPRC, MCC, and accuracy induce degenerate thresholds -- converging to zero or one -- and their values…
The orbits of the confirmed exoplanets from all multiple systems known to date are investigated. Observational data from 1890 objects, of which 1176 are found in multiplanetary systems, are compiled and analyzed. Mean motion resonances and…
American football is unique in that offensive and defensive units typically consist of separate players who don't share the field simultaneously, which tempts one to evaluate them independently. However, a team's offensive and defensive…
This paper develops techniques to study the number of descents in random permutations via martingales. We relax an assumption in the Berry-Esseen theorem of Bolthausen (1982) to extend the theorem's scope to martingale differences of…
We propose Bayesian methods to assess the statistical disclosure risk of data released under zero-concentrated differential privacy, focusing on settings with a strong hierarchical structure and categorical variables with many levels. Risk…
Injuries are a major cost in sports. Teams spend millions of dollars every year on players who are hurt and unable to play, resulting in lost games, decreased fan interest and additional wages for replacement players. Modern convolutional…
This paper presents a new methodology for generating continuous statistical distributions, integrating the exponentiated odds ratio within the framework of survival analysis. This new method enhances the flexibility and adaptability of…
In the context of this paper, a record is an entry in a sequence of random variables (RV's) that is larger or smaller than all previous entries. After a brief review of the classic theory of records, which is largely restricted to sequences…
A ball can be hit faster if it is projected without spin but it can be hit farther if it is projected with backspin. Measurements are presented in this paper of the tradeoff between speed and spin for a baseball impacting a baseball bat.…
In this paper a useful subfamily of the exponential family has been considered. The ML estimation based on upper record values has been calculated for the parameter, Cumulative Density Function, and Probability Density Function of the…
Dynamical systems in nature exhibit self-similar fractal space-time fluctuations on all scales indicating long-range correlations and therefore the statistical normal distribution with implicit assumption of independence, fixed mean and…
We develop a comprehensive framework for analyzing full record statistics, covering record counts $M(t_1), M(t_2), \ldots$, and their corresponding attainment times $T_{M(t_1)}, T_{M(t_2)}, \ldots$, as well as the intervals until the next…
Motivated by the goal of evaluating real-time forecasts of home team win probabilities in the National Basketball Association, we develop new tools for measuring the quality of continuously updated probabilistic forecasts. This includes…