相关论文: Modeling long-range memory trading activity by sto…
We show the variational convergence of an irreversible Markov jump process describing a finite stochastic particle system to the solution of a countable infinite system of deterministic time-inhomogeneous quadratic differential equations…
For the past two decades investors have observed long memory and highly correlated behavior of asset classes that does not fit into the framework of Modern Portfolio Theory. Custom correlation and standard deviation estimators consider…
Using empirical data from a social media site (Twitter) and on trading volumes of financial securities, we analyze the correlated human activity in massive social organizations. The activity, typically excited by real-world events and…
This paper explores stochastic modeling approaches to elucidate the intricate dynamics of stock prices and volatility in financial markets. Beginning with an overview of Brownian motion and its historical significance in finance, we delve…
Stylized facts can be regarded as constraints for any modeling attempt of price dynamics on a financial market, in that an empirically reasonable model has to reproduce these stylized facts at least qualitatively. The dynamics of market…
We provide a short-time large deviation principle (LDP) for stochastic volatility models, where the volatility is expressed as a function of a Volterra process. This LDP does not require strict self-similarity assumptions on the Volterra…
We present a numerical method to produce stochastic dynamics according to the generalized Langevin equation with a non-stationary memory kernel. This type of dynamics occurs when a microscopic system with an explicitly time-dependent…
We study the price dynamics of stocks traded in a financial market by considering the statistical properties both of a single time series and of an ensemble of stocks traded simultaneously. We use the $n$ stocks traded in the New York Stock…
A theory of systems with long-range correlations based on the consideration of binary N-step Markov chains is developed. In the model, the conditional probability that the i-th symbol in the chain equals zero (or unity) is a linear function…
We model the dynamics of asset prices and associated derivatives by consideration of the dynamics of the conditional probability density process for the value of an asset at some specified time in the future. In the case where the price…
We investigate the correlation properties of transaction data from the New York Stock Exchange. The trading activity f(t) of each stock displays a crossover from weaker to stronger correlations at time scales 60-390 minutes. In both…
We consider two kinds of stochastic volatility models. Both kinds of models contain a stationary volatility process, the density of which, at a fixed instant in time, we aim to estimate. We discuss discrete time models where for instance a…
Identifying the right tools to express the stochastic aspects of neural activity has proven to be one of the biggest challenges in computational neuroscience. Even if there is no definitive answer to this issue, the most common procedure to…
A general method to construct recombinant tree approximations for stochastic volatility models is developed and applied to the Heston model for stock price dynamics. In this application, the resulting approximation is a four tuple Markov…
Stochastic volatility models describe stock returns $r_t$ as driven by an unobserved process capturing the random dynamics of volatility $v_t$. The present paper quantifies how much information about volatility $v_t$ and future stock…
A theory of symbolic dynamic systems with long-range correlations based on the consideration of the binary N-step Markov chains developed earlier in Phys. Rev. Lett. 90, 110601 (2003) is generalized to the biased case (non equal numbers of…
In this paper, a pricing formula for volatility swaps is delivered when the underlying asset follows the stochastic volatility model with jumps and stochastic intensity. By using Feynman-Kac theorem, a partial integral differential equation…
Trend change prediction in complex systems with a large number of noisy time series is a problem with many applications for real-world phenomena, with stock markets as a notoriously difficult to predict example of such systems. We approach…
Mounting empirical evidence suggests that the observed extreme prices within a trading period can provide valuable information about the volatility of the process within that period. In this paper we define a class of stochastic volatility…
It is reported that financial news, especially financial events expressed in news, provide information to investors' long/short decisions and influence the movements of stock markets. Motivated by this, we leverage financial event streams…