相关论文: Risk measures with non-Gaussian fluctuations

In this paper we discuss the problem of the estimation of extreme event occurrence probability for data drawn from some multifractal process. We also study the heavy (power-law) tail behavior of probability density function associated with…

Extreme events and the heavy tail distributions driven by them are ubiquitous in various scientific, engineering and financial research. They are typically associated with stochastic instability caused by hidden unresolved processes.…

This paper provides comprehensive simulation results on the finite sample properties of the Diebold-Mariano (DM) test by Diebold and Mariano (1995) and the model confidence set (MCS) testing procedure by Hansen et al. (2011) applied to the…

We model systemic risk using a common factor that accounts for market-wide shocks and a tail dependence factor that accounts for linkages among extreme stock returns. Specifically, our theoretical model allows for firm-specific impacts of…

This study introduces a new analytical framework for quantifying multivariate risk measures. Using the Wishart process, which is a stochastic process with values in the space of positive definite matrices, we derive several conditional tail…

In risk theory, financial asset returns often follow heavy-tailed distributions. Investors and risk managers used to compare risk measures as the value at risk or tail value at risk in order over the whole confidence levels to avoid the…

Some problems with the recent stimulating proposal of a ``Gauge Theory of Finance'' by Ilinski and collaborators are outlined. First, the derivation of the log-normal distribution is shown equivalent both in information and mathematical…

We develop an econometric framework integrating heavy-tailed Student's $t$ distributions with behavioral probability weighting while preserving infinite divisibility. Using 432{,}752 observations across 86 assets (2004--2024), we…

Financial time series have been investigated to follow fat-tailed distributions. Further, an empirical probability distribution sometimes shows cut-off shapes on its tails. To describe this stylized fact, we incorporate the cut-off effect…

We recently showed that the S&P500 stock market index is well described by Tsallis non-extensive statistics and nonlinear Fokker-Planck time evolution. We argued that these results should be applicable to a broad range of markets and…

Recently we reported on an application of the Tsallis non-extensive statistics to the S&P500 stock index. There we argued that the statistics are applicable to a broad range of markets and exchanges where anamolous (super) diffusion and…

This paper proposes an empirical test of financial contagion in European equity markets during the tumultuous period of 2008-2011. Our analysis shows that traditional GARCH and Gaussian stochastic-volatility models are unable to explain two…

The estimation of risk measures recently gained a lot of attention, partly because of the backtesting issues of expected shortfall related to elicitability. In this work we shed a new and fundamental light on optimal estimation procedures…

In risk management, tail risks are of crucial importance. The quality of a tail model, which is determined by data from an unknown distribution, depends critically on the subset of data used to model the tail. Based on a suitably weighted…

The joint Value at Risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) quantile regression model of Taylor (2017) is extended via incorporating a realized measure, to drive the tail risk dynamics, as a potentially more efficient driver than daily…

Risk is an inherent feature of agricultural production and marketing and accurate measurement of it helps inform more efficient use of resources. This paper examines three tail quantile-based risk measures applied to the estimation of…

We propose a set of dependence measures that are non-linear, local, invariant to a wide range of transformations on the marginals, can show tail and risk asymmetries, are always well-defined, are easy to estimate and can be used on any…

Computation of extreme quantiles and tail-based risk measures using standard Monte Carlo simulation can be inefficient. A method to speed up computations is provided by importance sampling. We show that importance sampling algorithms,…

We describe a simple and accurate framework for modeling the statistical behavior of both fully developed turbulence and short-term dynamics of financial markets based on the formalism of Tsallis' generalized non-extensive thermostatistics.…

We perform a quantitative analysis of the gain/loss asymmetry for financial time series by using a Bayesian approach. In particular, we focus on some selected indices and analyze the statistical significance of the asymmetry amount through…