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It is generally accepted that many time series of practical interest exhibit strong dependence, i.e., long memory. For such series, the sample autocorrelations decay slowly and log-log periodogram plots indicate a straight-line…

统计理论 · 数学 2008-12-02 Rohit Deo , Meng-Chen Hsieh , Clifford M. Hurvich , Philippe Soulier

We consider two weakly coupled systems and adopt a perturbative approach based on the Ruelle response theory to study their interaction. We propose a systematic way to parametrize the effect of the coupling as a function of only the…

统计力学 · 物理学 2012-08-16 Jeroen Wouters , Valerio Lucarini

Identifying and quantifying memory are often critical steps in developing a mechanistic understanding of stochastic processes. These are particularly challenging and necessary when exploring processes that exhibit long-range correlations.…

统计力学 · 物理学 2016-04-20 Sarah E. Marzen , James P. Crutchfield

Systems of interacting continuous-time Markov chains are a powerful model class, but inference is typically intractable in high dimensional settings. Auxiliary information, such as noisy observations, is typically only available at discrete…

机器学习 · 统计学 2026-04-21 Giosue Migliorini , Padhraic Smyth

In this work, we will investigate a Bayesian approach to estimating the parameters of long memory models. Long memory, characterized by the phenomenon of hyperbolic autocorrelation decay in time series, has garnered significant attention.…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-06-19 Clara Grazian

We develop an instanton technique for calculations of correlation functions characterizing statistical behavior of the elastic string in disordered media and apply the proposed approach to correlations of string free energies corresponding…

软凝聚态物质 · 物理学 2009-11-07 Ya. M. Blanter , V. M. Vinokur

We formulate some simple conditions under which a Markov chain may be approximated by the solution to a differential equation, with quantifiable error probabilities. The role of a choice of coordinate functions for the Markov chain is…

概率论 · 数学 2008-04-23 R. W. R. Darling , J. R. Norris

This work aims at estimating inverse autocovariance matrices of long memory processes admitting a linear representation. A modified Cholesky decomposition is used in conjunction with an increasing order autoregressive model to achieve this…

统计理论 · 数学 2016-03-18 Ching-Kang Ing , Hai-Tang Chiou , Meihui Guo

Adaptive Monte Carlo methods can be viewed as implementations of Markov chains with infinite memory. We derive a general condition for the convergence of a Monte Carlo method whose history dependence is contained within the simulated…

计算物理 · 物理学 2007-05-23 David J. Earl , Michael W. Deem

Inhomogeneous temporal processes in natural and social phenomena have been described by bursts that are rapidly occurring events within short time periods alternating with long periods of low activity. In addition to the analysis of…

物理与社会 · 物理学 2015-08-26 Hang-Hyun Jo , Juan I. Perotti , Kimmo Kaski , Janos Kertesz

Online reinforcement learning agents are currently able to process an increasing amount of data by converting it into a higher order value functions. This expansion of the information collected from the environment increases the agent's…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-02-04 Mirza Ramicic , Andrea Bonarini

We show how to construct a topological Markov map of the interval whose invariant probability measure is the stationary law of a given stochastic chain of infinite order. In particular we caracterize the maps corresponding to stochastic…

概率论 · 数学 2015-06-05 Pierre Collet , Antonio Galves

Memory effects play a fundamental role in the study of the dynamics of open quantum systems. There exist two conceptually distinct notions of memory discussed for quantum channels in the literature. In quantum information theory quantum…

量子物理 · 物理学 2016-09-26 Carole Addis , Göktuğ Karpat , Chiara Macchiavello , Sabrina Maniscalco

We investigate the memory properties of discrete sequences built upon a finite number of states. We find that the block entropy can reliably determine the memory for systems modeled as Markov chains of arbitrary finite order. Further, we…

统计力学 · 物理学 2022-11-21 Juan De Gregorio , David Sanchez , Raul Toral

Long memory in the sense of slowly decaying autocorrelations is a stylized fact in many time series from economics and finance. The fractionally integrated process is the workhorse model for the analysis of these time series. Nevertheless,…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2023-09-22 Uwe Hassler , Marc-Oliver Pohle

Memory is a complex phenomenon that involves several distinct mechanisms. These mechanisms operate at different spatial and temporal levels. This chapter focuses on the theoretical framework and the mathematical models that have been…

神经元与认知 · 定量生物学 2021-12-22 Stefano Fusi

There is a well-established theory linking certain semi-Markov chains and continuous-time random walks to time-fractional equations and anomalous diffusion. In this work, we go beyond the semi-Markov framework by considering some…

概率论 · 数学 2026-02-27 Lorenzo Facciaroni , Costantino Ricciuti , Enrico Scalas

The evolution of sequence modeling architectures, from recurrent neural networks and convolutional models to Transformers and structured state-space models, reflects ongoing efforts to address the diverse temporal dependencies inherent in…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-06-10 Haotian Jiang , Zeyu Bao , Shida Wang , Qianxiao Li

We study the problem of identifying correlations in multivariate data, under information constraints: Either on the amount of memory that can be used by the algorithm, or the amount of communication when the data is distributed across…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2018-06-07 Yuval Dagan , Ohad Shamir

We show that long-term memory effects, present in the chaotic dispersion process generated by a meandering jet model, can be nonetheless taken into account by a first order Markov process, provided that the states of the phase space…

混沌动力学 · 物理学 2015-06-26 Guglielmo Lacorata , Ruben A. Pasmanter , Angelo Vulpiani