相关论文: Confidence Limits and their Robustness

This contribution to the debate on confidence limits focuses mostly on the case of measurements with `open likelihood', in the sense that it is defined in the text. I will show that, though a prior-free assessment of {\it confidence} is, in…

Confidence interval of mean is often used when quoting statistics. The same rigor is often missing when quoting percentiles and tolerance or percentile intervals. This article derives the expression for confidence in percentiles of a sample…

A novel way of defining limits in classical statistics is proposed. This is a natural extension of the original Neyman's method, and has the desirable property that only information relevant to the problem is used in making statistical…

Upper limits and confidence intervals are a convenient way to present experimental results. With modern experiments producing more and more data, it is often necessary to reduce the volume of the results for convenient distribution. A…

Confidence intervals are a popular way to visualize and analyze data distributions. Unlike p-values, they can convey information both about statistical significance as well as effect size. However, very little work exists on applying…

We study the frequentist properties of confidence intervals computed by the method known to statisticians as the Profile Likelihood. It is seen that the coverage of these intervals is surprisingly good over a wide range of possible…

Classical confidence limits are compared to Bayesian error bounds by studying relevant examples. The performance of the two methods is investigated relative to the properties coherence, precision, bias, universality, simplicity. A proposal…

Reliability is probability of success in a success-failure experiment. Confidence in reliability estimate improves with increasing number of samples. Assurance sets confidence level same as reliability to create one number for easier…

We consider the power to reject false values of the parameter in Frequentist methods for the calculation of confidence intervals. We connect the power with the physical significance (reliability) of confidence intervals for a parameter…

The Poisson probability distribution is frequently encountered in physical science measurements. In spite of the simplicity and familiarity of this distribution, there is considerable confusion among physicists concerning the description of…

Researchers often calculate ratios of measured quantities. Specifying confidence limits for ratios is difficult and the appropriate methods are often unknown. Appropriate methods are described (Fieller, Taylor, special bootstrap methods).…

Robustness checks are routine in empirical work, but there is no standard statistical procedure to formally measure what one can learn from them. I propose a "robustness radius" measure to quantify the amount by which the robustness checks…

The behaviors of various confidence/credible interval constructions are explored, particularly in the region of low statistics where methods diverge most. We highlight a number of challenges, such as the treatment of nuisance parameters,…

Frequentist (classical) and the Bayesian approaches to the construction of confidence limits are compared. Various examples which illustrate specific problems are presented. The Likelihood Principle and the Stopping Rule Paradox are…

Confidence intervals are central to statistical inference as a tool to evaluate the type I error risk at a given significance level. We devise a method to construct confidence intervals using a single run of a permutation test. This…

A confidence distribution is a distribution for a parameter of interest based on a parametric statistical model. As such, it serves the same purpose for frequentist statisticians as a posterior distribution for Bayesians, since it allows to…

We compute bias, variance, and approximate confidence intervals for the efficiency of a random selection process under various special conditions that occur in practical data analysis. We consider the following cases: a) the number of…

In this article, we derive an explicit formula for computing confidence interval for the mean of a bounded random variable. Moreover, we have developed multistage point estimation methods for estimating the mean value with prescribed…

Often it is desirable to stabilize a system around an optimal state. This can be effectively accomplished using feedback control, where the system deviation from the desired state is measured in order to determine the magnitude of the…

Rating systems are ubiquitous, with applications ranging from product recommendation to teaching evaluations. Confidence intervals for functionals of rating data such as empirical means or quantiles are critical to decision-making in…