Confidence limits: what is the problem? Is there the solution?
摘要
This contribution to the debate on confidence limits focuses mostly on the case of measurements with `open likelihood', in the sense that it is defined in the text. I will show that, though a prior-free assessment of {\it confidence} is, in general, not possible, still a search result can be reported in a mostly unbiased and efficient way, which satisfies some desiderata which I believe are shared by the people interested in the subject. The simpler case of `closed likelihood' will also be treated, and I will discuss why a uniform prior on a sensible quantity is a very reasonable choice for most applications. In both cases, I think that much clarity will be achieved if we remove from scientific parlance the misleading expressions `confidence intervals' and `confidence levels'.
引用
@article{arxiv.hep-ex/0002055,
title = {Confidence limits: what is the problem? Is there the solution?},
author = {G. D'Agostini},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:hep-ex/0002055},
year = {2007}
}
备注
20 pages, 6 figures, using cernrepp.cls (included). Contribution to the Workshop on Confidence Limits, CERN, Geneva, 17-18 January 2000. This paper and related work are also available at http://www-zeus.roma1.infn.it/~agostini/prob+stat.html