相关论文: Confidence Limits and their Robustness

How can we draw trustworthy scientific conclusions? One criterion is that a study can be replicated by independent teams. While replication is critically important, it is arguably insufficient. If a study is biased for some reason and other…

A long noted difficulty when assessing the reliability (or calibration) of forecasting systems is that reliability, in general, is a hypothesis not about a finite dimensional parameter but about an entire functional relationship. A…

Achieving error rates that meet or exceed the fault-tolerance threshold is a central goal for quantum computing experiments, and measuring these error rates using randomized benchmarking is now routine. However, direct comparison between…

Although applications of Bayesian analysis for numerical quadrature problems have been considered before, it's only very recently that statisticians have focused on the connections between statistics and numerical analysis of differential…

The method of obtaining confidence intervals on a subset of the total number of parameters (p) of a model used for fitting X-ray spectra is to perturb the best-fitting model until, for each parameter, a range is found for which the change…

We examine the problem of construction of confidence intervals within the basic single-parameter, single-iteration variation of the method of quasi-optimal weights. Two kinds of distortions of such intervals due to insufficiently large…

We present a novel and easy-to-use method for calibrating error-rate based confidence intervals to evidence-based support intervals. Support intervals are obtained from inverting Bayes factors based on a parameter estimate and its standard…

Estimating the mode of a unimodal distribution is a classical problem in statistics. Although there are several approaches for point-estimation of mode in the literature, very little has been explored about the interval-estimation of mode.…

$f$-divergences, which quantify discrepancy between probability distributions, are ubiquitous in information theory, machine learning, and statistics. While there are numerous methods for estimating $f$-divergences from data, a limit…

The following questions are discussed: ``Why confidence intervals are a hot topic?''; ``Are confidence intervals objective?''; ``What is the usefulness of coverage?''; ``How to obtain useful information from experiment?''; ``The confidence…

The laws of quantum mechanics place fundamental limits on the accuracy of measurements and therefore on the estimation of unknown parameters of a quantum system. In this work, we prove lower bounds on the size of confidence regions reported…

Confidence intervals are an established means of portraying uncertainty about an inferred parameter and can be generated through the use of confidence distributions. For a confidence distribution to be ideal, it must maintain frequentist…

Normalised citation counts are routinely used to assess the average impact of research groups or nations. There is controversy over whether confidence intervals for them are theoretically valid or practically useful. In response, this…

The application of machine learning to physics problems is widely found in the scientific literature. Both regression and classification problems are addressed by a large array of techniques that involve learning algorithms. Unfortunately,…

Null hypothesis significance tests and p values are widely used despite very strong arguments against their use in many contexts. Confidence intervals are often recommended as an alternative, but these do not achieve the objective of…

Obtaining guarantees on the convergence of the minimizers of empirical risks to the ones of the true risk is a fundamental matter in statistical learning. Instead of deriving guarantees on the usual estimation error, the goal of this paper…

We connect the power of Confidence Intervals in different Frequentist methods to their reliability. We show that in the case of a bounded parameter a biased method which near the boundary has large power in testing the parameter against…

Frequentists' inference often delivers point estimators associated with confidence intervals or sets for parameters of interest. Constructing the confidence intervals or sets requires understanding the sampling distributions of the point…

Research often necessitates of samples, yet obtaining large enough samples is not always possible. When it is, the researcher may use one of two methods for deciding upon the required sample size: rules-of-thumb, quick yet uncertain, and…

Experimentation platforms in industry must often deal with customer trust issues. Platforms must prove the validity of their claims as well as catch issues that arise. As a central quantity estimated by experimentation platforms, the…