相关论文: Harris Processes

The aim of this paper is to analyze a class of random motions which models the motion of a particle on the real line with random velocity and subject to the action of the friction. The speed randomly changes when a Poissonian event occurs.…

In this paper, we adopt a Bayesian point of view for predicting real continuous-time processes. We give two equivalent definitions of a Bayesian predictor and study some properties: admissibility, prediction sufficiency, non-unbiasedness,…

Given a statistical model, we propose a novel estimation method that yields randomised estimators for the unknown distribution of an observed random variable. We establish non-asymptotic bounds for the performance of these estimators and…

We propose a model selection approach for covariance estimation of a multi-dimensional stochastic process. Under very general assumptions, observing i.i.d replications of the process at fixed observation points, we construct an estimator of…

We develop dependent hierarchical normalized random measures and apply them to dynamic topic modeling. The dependency arises via superposition, subsampling and point transition on the underlying Poisson processes of these measures. The…

We consider a hidden Markov model, where the signal process, given by a diffusion, is only indirectly observed through some noisy measurements. The article develops a variational method for approximating the hidden states of the signal…

In this paper, we are interested in linear prediction of a particular kind of stochastic process, namely a marked temporal point process. The observations are event times recorded on the real line, with marks attached to each event. We show…

We present a novel extension of multi-output Gaussian processes for handling heterogeneous outputs. We assume that each output has its own likelihood function and use a vector-valued Gaussian process prior to jointly model the parameters in…

The space-fractional and the time-fractional Poisson processes are two well-known models of fractional evolution. They can be constructed as standard Poisson processes with the time variable replaced by a stable subordinator and its…

We consider the problem of sequential estimation of the unknowns of state-space and deep state-space models that include estimation of functions and latent processes of the models. The proposed approach relies on Gaussian and deep Gaussian…

A new derivation method of duality relations in stochastic processes is proposed. The current focus is on the duality between stochastic differential equations and birth-death processes. Although previous derivation methods have been based…

State-space models have been successfully used for more than fifty years in different areas of science and engineering. We present a procedure for efficient variational Bayesian learning of nonlinear state-space models based on sparse…

We derive randomization-based models for experiments with a chain of randomizations. The estimation theory for these models leads to formulae for the estimators of treatment effects, their standard errors, and expected mean squares in the…

The problem of parameter estimation by observations of inhomogeneous Poisson processes is considered. The method of moments estimator is studied and its stochastic expansion is obtained. This stochastic expansion is then used to obtain the…

We derive an exact probabilistic representation for the evolution of a Hubbard model with site- and spin-dependent hopping coefficients and site-dependent interactions in terms of an associated stochastic dynamics of a collection of Poisson…

We propose multivariate nonstationary Gaussian processes for jointly modeling multiple clinical variables, where the key parameters, length-scales, standard deviations and the correlations between the observed output, are all time…

In this paper we introduce a general stochastic representation for an important class of processes with resetting. It allows to describe any stochastic process intermittently terminated and restarted from a predefined random or non-random…

We introduce a generalisation of the well-known ARCH process, widely used for generating uncorrelated stochastic time series with long-term non-Gaussian distributions and long-lasting correlations in the (instantaneous) standard deviation…

Stochastic processes generated by non-stationary distributions are difficult to represent with conventional models such as Gaussian processes. This work presents Recurrent Autoregressive Flows as a method toward general stochastic process…

We consider renewal stochastic processes generated by non-independent events from the perspective that their basic distribution and associated generating functions obey the statistical-mechanical structure of systems with interacting…