English

Bayesian prediction for stochastic processes. Theory and applications

Statistics Theory 2013-12-31 v2 Statistics Theory

Abstract

In this paper, we adopt a Bayesian point of view for predicting real continuous-time processes. We give two equivalent definitions of a Bayesian predictor and study some properties: admissibility, prediction sufficiency, non-unbiasedness, comparison with efficient predictors. Prediction of Poisson process and prediction of Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process in the continuous and sampled situations are considered. Various simulations illustrate comparison with non-Bayesian predictors.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.1211.2300,
  title  = {Bayesian prediction for stochastic processes. Theory and applications},
  author = {Delphine Blanke and Denis Bosq},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:1211.2300},
  year   = {2013}
}

Comments

18 pages

R2 v1 2026-06-21T22:36:03.661Z