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Stochastic processes are a flexible and widely used family of models for statistical modeling. While stochastic processes offer attractive properties such as inclusion of uncertainty properties, their inference is typically intractable,…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-02-10 Teemu Härkönen , Simo Särkkä

Within the past two decades, Gaussian process regression has been increasingly used for modeling dynamical systems due to some beneficial properties such as the bias variance trade-off and the strong connection to Bayesian mathematics. As…

系统与控制 · 电气工程与系统科学 2021-02-11 Thomas Beckers

We introduce stochastic variational inference for Gaussian process models. This enables the application of Gaussian process (GP) models to data sets containing millions of data points. We show how GPs can be vari- ationally decomposed to…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2013-09-27 James Hensman , Nicolo Fusi , Neil D. Lawrence

Stochastic processes offer a flexible mathematical formalism to model and reason about systems. Most analysis tools, however, start from the premises that models are fully specified, so that any parameters controlling the system's dynamics…

系统与控制 · 计算机科学 2017-01-11 Luca Bortolussi , Guido Sanguinetti

We study properties of the (generalized) Dickman distribution with two parameters and the stationary solution of the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck stochastic differential equation driven by a Poisson process. In particular, we show that the marginal…

In this paper, we consider the problem of estimating the covariation of two diffusion processes when observations are subject to non-synchronicity. Building on recent papers \cite{Hay-Yos03, Hay-Yos04}, we derive second-order asymptotic…

统计理论 · 数学 2012-02-15 Arnak Dalalyan , Nakahiro Yoshida

Data on count processes arise in a variety of applications, including longitudinal, spatial and imaging studies measuring count responses. The literature on statistical models for dependent count data is dominated by models built from…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2013-10-08 Antonio Canale , David B. Dunson

Modelling the first-order intensity function is one of the main aims in point process theory, and it has been approached so far from different perspectives. One appealing model describes the intensity as a function of a spatial covariate.…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2018-07-03 M. I. Borrajo , W. González-Manteiga , M. D. Martínez-Miranda

Doubly-stochastic point processes model the occurrence of events over a spatial domain as an inhomogeneous Poisson process conditioned on the realization of a random intensity function. They are flexible tools for capturing spatial…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-06-28 Si Cheng , Jon Wakefield , Ali Shojaie

This paper introduces a mathematical framework of a stochastic process model as a generalization of diffusion stochastic processes to model latent variables in categorical responses given unobserved random effects and maximum likelihood…

统计理论 · 数学 2023-06-05 Mahdi Mollakazemiha

Stationary stochastic processes with independent increments, of which the Poisson process is a prominent example, are widely used to describe real world events. With the basic assumption that a counting process is stationary and has…

概率论 · 数学 2018-11-20 Enzhi Li

This chapter presents specific aspects of Gaussian process modeling in the presence of complex noise. Starting from the standard homoscedastic model, various generalizations from the literature are presented: input varying noise variance,…

最优化与控制 · 数学 2024-12-11 Mickael Binois , Arindam Fadikar , Abby Stevens

We introduce a Gaussian process-based model for handling of non-stationarity. The warping is achieved non-parametrically, through imposing a prior on the relative change of distance between subsequent observation inputs. The model allows…

机器学习 · 统计学 2019-12-06 David Tolpin

We present a Bayesian non-parametric way of inferring stochastic differential equations for both regression tasks and continuous-time dynamical modelling. The work has high emphasis on the stochastic part of the differential equation, also…

机器学习 · 统计学 2020-06-29 Martin Jørgensen , Marc Peter Deisenroth , Hugh Salimbeni

In this work, we consider the problem of steering the first two moments of the uncertain state of an unknown discrete-time stochastic nonlinear system to a given terminal distribution in finite time. Toward that goal, first, a…

最优化与控制 · 数学 2021-04-05 Alexandros Tsolovikos , Efstathios Bakolas

Layered stable (multivariate) distributions and processes are defined and studied. A layered stable process combines stable trends of two different indices, one of them possibly Gaussian. More precisely, in short time, it is close to a…

概率论 · 数学 2023-04-11 C. Houdré , R. Kawai

Gaussian processes are Bayesian non-parametric models used in many areas. In this work, we propose a Non-stationary Heteroscedastic Gaussian process model which can be learned with gradient-based techniques. We demonstrate the…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-12-26 Zeel B Patel , Nipun Batra , Kevin Murphy

From a continuous-time long memory stochastic process, a discrete-time randomly sampled one is drawn. We investigate the second-order properties of this process and establish some time-and frequency-domain asymptotic results. We mainly…

统计理论 · 数学 2021-10-12 Mohamedou Ould Haye , Anne Philippe , Caroline Robet

Gaussian processes models are widely adopted for nonparameteric/semi-parametric modeling. Identifiability issues occur when the mean model contains polynomials with unknown coefficients. Though resulting prediction is unaffected, this leads…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2016-11-02 Matthew Plumlee , V. Roshan Joseph

A class of discrete distributions can be derived from stationary renewal processes. They have the useful property that the mean is a simple function of the model parameters. Thus regressions of the distribution mean on covariates can be…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2018-03-01 Rose Baker