相关论文: SOC in a population model with global control
This paper is dedicated to the memory of Dietrich Stauffer, who was a pioneer in percolation theory and applications of it to problems of society, such as epidemiology. An epidemic is a percolation process gone out of control, that is,…
The basic reproduction number, $R_0$, is a well-known quantifier of epidemic spread. However, a class of existing methods for estimating $R_0$ from incidence data early in the epidemic can lead to an over-estimation of this quantity. In…
Directed Percolation (DP) is a classic model for nonequilibrium phase transitions into a single absorbing state (fixation). It has been extensively studied by analytical and numerical techniques in diverse contexts. Recently, DP has…
We study a susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) model with multiple seeds on a regular random graph. Many researchers have studied the epidemic threshold of epidemic models above which a global outbreak can occur, starting from an…
Inspired by dengue and yellow fever epidemics, we investigated the contact process (CP) in a multiscale network constituted by one-dimensional chains connected through a Barab\'asi-Albert scale-free network. In addition to the CP dynamics…
Bootstrap percolation is an often used model to study the spread of diseases, rumors, and information on sparse random graphs. The percolation process demonstrates a critical value such that the graph is either almost completely affected or…
The contact process is a simple model for the spread of an infection in a structured population. We investigate the case when the underlying structure evolves dynamically as a degree-dependent dynamical percolation model. Starting with a…
We study standard and higher-order birth-death processes on fully connected networks, within the perspective of large-deviation theory (also referred to as Wentzel-Kramers-Brillouin (WKB) method in some contexts). We obtain a general…
In this paper, we uncover new asymptotic isolation by distance patterns occurring under long-range dispersal of offspring. We extend a recent work of the first author, in which this information was obtained from forwards-in-time dynamics…
The probability distributions of the order parameter for two models in the directed percolation universality class were evaluated. Monte Carlo simulations have been performed for the one-dimensional generalized contact process and the…
A probabilistic approach to the epidemic evolution on realistic social-contact networks allows for characteristic differences among subjects, including the individual number and structure of social contacts, and the heterogeneity of the…
We revisit well-established concepts of epidemiology, the Ising-model, and percolation theory. Also, we employ a spin $S$ = 1/2 Ising-like model and a (logistic) Fermi-Dirac-like function to describe the spread of Covid-19. Our analysis…
In the face of serious infectious diseases, governments endeavour to implement containment measures such as public vaccination at a macroscopic level. Meanwhile, individuals tend to protect themselves by avoiding contacts with infections at…
The success of an infectious disease to invade a population is strongly controlled by the population's specific connectivity structure. Here a network model is presented as an aid in understanding the role of social behavior and…
Epidemics unfold by means of a spreading process from each infected individual to a random number of secondary cases. It has been claimed that the so-called superspreading events in COVID-19 are governed by a power-law tailed distribution…
The basic reproduction number ($R_0$) is a threshold parameter for disease extinction or survival in isolated populations. However no human population is fully isolated from other human or animal populations. We use compartmental models to…
A general field theoretic model of directed percolation with many colors that is equivalent to a population model (Gribov process) with many species near their extinction thresholds is presented. It is shown that the multicritical behavior…
For any branching process, we demonstrate that the typical total number $r_{\rm mp}(\nu \tau)$ of events triggered over all generations within any sufficiently large time window $\tau$ exhibits, at criticality, a super-linear dependence…
The report considers the dynamics of the global population as the unique case of the Socio-Economic Soft Matter system. This category was introduced for complex systems dominated by mesoscale assemblies, emerging due to the inherent…
We study atypical behavior in bootstrap percolation on the Erd\H{o}s-R\'enyi random graph. Initially a set $S$ is infected. Other vertices are infected once at least $r$ of their neighbors become infected. Janson et al. (2012) locates the…