相关论文: Critical Crashes
This paper is devoted to problem of detecting critical events at finiacial markets using methods of multifractal analysis. Namely, the local regularity of time-series is studied. As a result, one can find out a special behavior or signal of…
Many dynamical systems operate in a fluctuating environment. However, even in low-dimensional setups, transitions and bifurcations have not yet been fully understood. In this Letter we focus on crises, a sudden flooding of the phase space…
Starting on February 20, 2020, the global stock markets began to suffer the worst decline since the Great Recession in 2008, and the COVID-19 has been widely blamed on the stock market crashes. In this study, we applied the log-periodic…
We study the dynamic evolution of cross-correlations in the Chinese stock market mainly based on the random matrix theory (RMT). The correlation matrices constructed from the return series of 367 A-share stocks traded on the Shanghai Stock…
A brief historical perspective is first given concerning financial crashes, - from the 17th till the 20th century. In modern times, it seems that log periodic oscillations are found before crashes in several financial indices. The same is…
The Stock Market is a complex self-interacting system, characterized by an intermittent behaviour. Periods of high activity alternate with periods of relative calm. In the present work we investigate empirically about the possibility that…
Based on our "finance-prediction-oriented" methodology which involves such elements as log-periodic self-similarity, the universal preferred scaling factor lambda=2, and allows a phenomenon of the "super-bubble" we analyze the 2009 world…
We present an empirical analysis of the microstructure of financial markets and, in particular, of the static and dynamic properties of liquidity. We find that on relatively large time scales (15 minutes) large price fluctuations are…
``Self-Organised Criticality'' (SOC) is the mechanism by which complex systems spontaneously settle close to a *critical point*, at the edge between stability and chaos, and characterized by fat-tailed fluctuations and long-memory…
In normal times, it is assumed that financial institutions operating in non-overlapping sectors have complementary and distinct outcomes, typically reflected in mostly uncorrelated outcomes and asset returns. Such is the reasoning behind…
In order to understand the origin of stock price jumps, we cross-correlate high-frequency time series of stock returns with different news feeds. We find that neither idiosyncratic news nor market wide news can explain the frequency and…
With the rise of computing and artificial intelligence, advanced modeling and forecasting has been applied to High Frequency markets. A crucial element of solid production modeling though relies on the investigation of data distributions…
The hypothesis of self-organized criticality explains the existence of long-range `space-time' correlations, observed inseparably in many natural dynamical systems. A simple link between these correlations is yet unclear, particularly in…
We exploit a continuous time random walk description of stock prices to obtain a fast and accurate evaluation of their volatility from intraday data. We show that financial markets are usefully described as open physical systems. Indeed we…
We make an attempt to map a simple economically motivated model for the price evolution [J. Phys. A: Gen. Math 33, 3637 (2000)] to the phenomenological renormalization group scaling of stock markets. This mapping gives insight into the…
Catastrophes of all kinds can be roughly defined as short duration-large amplitude events following and followed by long periods of "ripening". Major earthquakes surely belong to the class of 'catastrophic' events. Because of the space-time…
Financial markets across all asset classes are known to exhibit trends. These trends have been exploited by traders for decades. Here, we empirically measure when trends revert, based on 30 years of daily futures prices for equity indices,…
We propose that the minimal requirements for a model of stock market price fluctuations should comprise time asymmetry, robustness with respect to connectivity between agents, ``bounded rationality'' and a probabilistic description. We also…
We propose a reduced form set of two coupled continuous time equations linking the price of a representative asset and the price of a bond, the later quantifying the cost of borrowing. The feedbacks between asset prices and bonds are…
We analyse all Mini Flash Crashes (or Flash Equity Failures) in the US equity markets in the four most volatile months during 2006-2011. In contrast to previous studies, we find that Mini Flash Crashes are the result of regulation framework…