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We develop a novel Monte Carlo algorithm for the vector consisting of the supremum, the time at which the supremum is attained and the position at a given (constant) time of an exponentially tempered L\'evy process. The algorithm, based on…

数理金融 · 定量金融 2023-11-20 Jorge Ignacio González Cázares , Aleksandar Mijatović

Models of stochastic processes are widely used in almost all fields of science. Theory validation, parameter estimation, and prediction all require model calibration and statistical inference using data. However, data are almost always…

统计计算 · 统计学 2022-09-07 David J. Warne , Thomas P. Prescott , Ruth E. Baker , Matthew J. Simpson

Markov chain Monte Carlo is an inherently serial algorithm. Although likelihood calculations for individual steps can sometimes be parallelized, the serial evolution of the process is widely viewed as incompatible with parallelization,…

统计计算 · 统计学 2013-12-31 Douglas N. VanDerwerken , Scott C. Schmidler

Sequential Monte Carlo methods, also known as particle methods, are a popular set of techniques for approximating high-dimensional probability distributions and their normalizing constants. These methods have found numerous applications in…

统计计算 · 统计学 2021-06-23 Jeremy Heng , Adrian N. Bishop , George Deligiannidis , Arnaud Doucet

We consider the problem of inferring a latent function in a probabilistic model of data. When dependencies of the latent function are specified by a Gaussian process and the data likelihood is complex, efficient computation often involve…

机器学习 · 统计学 2018-07-23 Martin Tegner , Benjamin Bloem-Reddy , Stephen Roberts

For a given target density, there exist an infinite number of diffusion processes which are ergodic with respect to this density. As observed in a number of papers, samplers based on nonreversible diffusion processes can significantly…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2017-01-17 A. B. Duncan , G. A. Pavliotis , K. C. Zygalakis

We introduce and implement an importance-sampling Monte Carlo algorithm to study systems of globally-coupled oscillators. Our computational method efficiently obtains estimates of the tails of the distribution of various measures of…

混沌动力学 · 物理学 2017-07-12 Shamik Gupta , Jorge C. Leitao , Eduardo G. Altmann

In this paper we address the problem of rare-event simulation for heavy-tailed L\'evy processes with infinite activities. We propose a strongly efficient importance sampling algorithm that builds upon the sample path large deviations for…

概率论 · 数学 2020-07-17 Xingyu Wang , Chang-Han Rhee

We introduce and analyze a parallel sequential Monte Carlo methodology for the numerical solution of optimization problems that involve the minimization of a cost function that consists of the sum of many individual components. The proposed…

统计计算 · 统计学 2022-01-04 Ömer Deniz Akyildiz , Dan Crisan , Joaquín Míguez

The paper proposes a Riemannian Manifold Hamiltonian Monte Carlo sampler to resolve the shortcomings of existing Monte Carlo algorithms when sampling from target densities that may be high dimensional and exhibit strong correlations. The…

统计计算 · 统计学 2019-12-18 Mark Girolami , Ben Calderhead , Siu A. Chin

We introduce modifications to Monte Carlo simulations of the Feynman path integral that improve sampling of localised interactions. The new algorithms generate trajectories in simple background potentials designed to concentrate them about…

量子物理 · 物理学 2025-08-06 Ivan Ahumada , James P. Edwards

We propose to use deep neural networks for generating samples in Monte Carlo integration. Our work is based on non-linear independent components estimation (NICE), which we extend in numerous ways to improve performance and enable its…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2019-09-04 Thomas Müller , Brian McWilliams , Fabrice Rousselle , Markus Gross , Jan Novák

We present an efficient computational approach to sample the histories of nonlinear stochastic processes. This framework builds upon recent work on casting a $d$-dimensional stochastic dynamical system into a $d+1$-dimensional equilibrium…

统计力学 · 物理学 2009-11-11 Natali Gulbahce , Francis J. Alexander , Gregory Johnson

In this paper we present a new approach to control variates for improving computational efficiency of Ensemble Monte Carlo. We present the approach using simulation of paths of a time-dependent nonlinear stochastic equation. The core idea…

计算工程、金融与科学 · 计算机科学 2008-09-25 T. Borogovac , F. J. Alexander , P. Vakili

We describe an algorithm for the sequential sampling of entries in multiway contingency tables with given constraints. The algorithm can be used for computations in exact conditional inference. To justify the algorithm, a theory relates…

统计理论 · 数学 2007-06-13 Yuguo Chen , Ian H. Dinwoodie , Seth Sullivant

Path integral Monte Carlo (PIMC) simulations have become an important tool for the investigation of the statistical mechanics of quantum systems. I discuss some of the history of applying the Monte Carlo method to non-relativistic quantum…

物理学史与哲学 · 物理学 2016-11-23 Tilman Sauer

Sequential Monte Carlo methods which involve sequential importance sampling and resampling are shown to provide a versatile approach to computing probabilities of rare events. By making use of martingale representations of the sequential…

概率论 · 数学 2012-02-22 Hock Peng Chan , Tze Leung Lai

Sequential Monte Carlo methods are a powerful framework for approximating the posterior distribution of a state variable in a sequential manner. They provide an attractive way of analyzing dynamic systems in real-time, taking into account…

种群与进化 · 定量生物学 2024-08-29 Dhorasso Temfack , Jason Wyse

In many real-world engineering systems, the performance or reliability of the system is characterised by a scalar parameter. The distribution of this performance parameter is important in many uncertainty quantification problems, ranging…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-10-03 Robert Millar , Jinglai Li , Hui Li

Characteristic functions of several popular classes of distributions and processes admit analytic continuation into unions of strips and open coni around $\mathbb{R}\subset \mathbb{C}$. The Fourier transform techniques reduces calculation…

计算金融 · 定量金融 2018-08-17 Svetlana Boyarchenko , Sergei Levendorskiĭ