相关论文: Simple tools for extrapolations of human mortality…

We study a population of $N$ individuals evolving according to a biparental Moran model with two types, one being advantaged compared to the other. The advantage is conferred by a Mendelian mutation, which reduces the death probability of…

Since its proposition in 1995, the Heumann-Hotzel model has remained as an obscure model of biological aging. The main arguments used against it were its apparent inability to describe populations with many age intervals and its failure to…

A probability model is presented for the dynamics of mutation-selection balance in a haploid infinite-population infinite-sites setting sufficiently general to cover mutation-driven changes in full age-specific demographic schedules. The…

Will the United Kingdom's ageing population be fit and independent, or suffer from greater chronic ill health? Healthy life expectancy is commonly used to assess this: it is an estimate of how many years are lived in good health over the…

We investigate how a catastrophic event (modeled as a temporary fall of the reproduction rate) increases the extinction probability of an isolated self-regulated stochastic population. Using a variant of the Verhulst logistic model as an…

Mortality, birth rates and retirement play a major role in demographic changes. In most cases, mortality rates decreased in the past century without noticeable decrease in fertility rates, this leads to a significant increase in population…

Populations are often subject to catastrophes that cause mass removal of individuals. Many stochastic growth models have been considered to explain such dynamics. Among the results reported, it has been considered whether dispersion…

We introduce a simple model of economy, where the time evolution is described by an equation capturing both exchange between individuals and random speculative trading, in such a way that the fundamental symmetry of the economy under an…

This paper aims to develop practical applications of the model for the highly technical measure-valued populations developed by the authors in \cite{FanEtal20}. We consider the problem of estimation of parameters in the general age and…

The dynamics of a population exhibiting exponential growth can be modelled as a birth-death process, which naturally captures the stochastic variation in population size over time. In this article, we consider a supercritical birth-death…

This work is a continuation of [7]. We consider a continuous-time birth-and-death process in which the transition rates have an asymptotical power-law dependence upon the position of the process. We establish rough exponential asymptotic…

Human longevity leaders with remarkably long lifespan play a crucial role in the advancement of longevity research. In this paper, we propose a stochastic model to describe the evolution of the age of the oldest person in the world by a…

A new stochastic method for describing mortality is proposed and explored. It is based on differences of observed times series of the transform $\log(-\log x)$ of survival probabilities which seem to follow simple patterns over the years.…

We study the probabilistic evolution of a birth and death continuous time measure-valued process with mutations and ecological interactions. The individuals are characterized by (phenotypic) traits that take values in a compact metric…

A simplified model for the growth of a population is studied in which random effects arise because reproducing individuals have a certain probability of surviving until the next breeding season and hence contributing to the next generation.…

I study a population model in which the reproduction rate lambda is inherited with mutation, favoring fast reproducers in the short term, but conflicting with a process that eliminates agglomerations of individuals. The model is a variant…

The time evolution of the Partridge-Barton model in the presence of the pleiotropic constraint and deleterious somatic mutations is exactly solved for arbitrary fecundity in the context of a matricial formalism. Analytical expressions for…

The science of cities seeks to understand and explain regularities observed in the world's major urban systems. Modelling the population evolution of cities is at the core of this science and of all urban studies. Quantitatively, the most…

We show that a simple nonlinear differential equation (originally studied in the physics of disordered systems) is able to mathematically describe the global population growth over the past 12000 years. Different regimes of population…

Mortality is different across countries, states and regions. Several empirical research works however reveal that mortality trends exhibit a common pattern and show similar structures across populations. The key element in analyzing…