相关论文: Simple tools for extrapolations of human mortality…
Cohort effects are important factors in determining the evolution of human mortality for certain countries. Extensions of dynamic mortality models with cohort features have been proposed in the literature to account for these factors under…
In this paper we derive a statistical law of Life. It governs the probability of death, or complementary of survival, of the living organisms. We have deduced such a law coupling the widely used Weibull statistics, developed for describing…
Recently, we have shown that the age-specific prevalence of a disease can be related to the transition rates in the illness-death model via a partial differential equation (PDE). In case of a chronic disease, we show that the PDE can be…
Present human languages display slightly asymmetric log-normal (Gauss) distribution for size [1-3], whereas present cities follow power law (Pareto-Zipf law)[4]. Our model considers the competition between languages and that between cities…
We propose a new definition for the error threshold of a population evolving through mutation and selection. We compute the correction term due to the finiteness of the population by estimating the lifetime of master sequences. Our…
We consider age-structured models with an imposed refractory period between births. These models can be used to formulate alternative population control strategies to China's one-child policy. By allowing any number of births, but with an…
Theoretical ecologists have long sought to understand how the persistence of populations depends on biotic and abiotic factors. Classical work showed that demographic stochasticity causes the mean time to extinction to increase…
Birth-death processes form a natural class where ideas and results on large deviations can be tested. In this paper, we derive a large deviation principle under the assumption that the rate of a jump down (death) is growing asymptotically…
Recently we developed a new framework in Hirz et al (2015) to model stochastic mortality using extended CreditRisk$^+$ methodology which is very different from traditional time series methods used for mortality modelling previously. In this…
We use a simple combinatorial model of technological change to explain the Industrial Revolution. The Industrial Revolution was a sudden large improvement in technology, which resulted in significant increases in human wealth and life…
We discuss the Carter's formula about the mankind evolution probability following the derivation proposed by Barrow and Tipler. We stress the relation between the existence of billions of galaxies and the evolution of at least one…
BACKGROUND Indicators of relative inequality of lifespans are important because they capture the dimensionless shape of aging. They are markers of inequality at the population level and express the uncertainty at the time of death at the…
In this paper, we review recent results of ours concerning branching processes with general lifetimes and neutral mutations, under the infinitely many alleles model, where mutations can occur either at birth of individuals or at a constant…
Is it possible to reverse the low total fertility rate (TFR) in the developed world? Using a hypothetical model of population we have analysed the decline of the TFR which have took place in the background of ongoing global economic…
A wide range of stochastic processes that model the growth and decline of populations exhibit a curious dichotomy: with certainty either the population goes extinct or its size tends to infinity. There is a elegant and classical theorem…
Understanding the time evolution of fragmented animal populations and their habitats, connected by migration, is a problem of both theoretical and practical interest. This paper presents a method for calculating the time evolution of the…
We study the dynamics of an age-structured population in which the life expectancy of an offspring may be mutated with respect to that of its parent. When advantageous mutation is favored, the average fitness of the population grows…
Population genetics struggles to model extinction; standard models track the relative rather than absolute fitness of genotypes, while the exceptions describe only the short-term transition from imminent doom to evolutionary rescue. But…
We introduce and study a fractional variant of the linear birth-death process, namely, the generalized fractional linear birth-death process (GFLBDP) which is defined by taking the regularized Hilfer-Prabhakar derivative in the system of…
We introduce an interacting particle system which models the inherited sterility method. Individuals evolve on $\mathbb{Z}^d$ according to a contact process with parameter $\lambda>0$. With probability $p \in [0,1]$ an offspring is fertile…