相关论文: Domino effect for world market fluctuations

We give a new predictive mathematical model for macroeconomics, which deals specifically with asset prices and earnings fluctuations, in the presence of a dynamic economy involving mergers, acquisitions, and hostile takeovers. Consider a…

Many complex systems exhibit extreme events far more often than expected for a normal distribution. This work examines how self-similar bursts of activity across several orders of magnitude can emerge from first principles in systems that…

An approach is suggested for treating multiscale fluctuations in macromolecular systems. The emphasis is on the statistical properties of such fluctuations. The approach is illustrated by a macromolecular system with mesoscopic fluctuations…

Many studies have shown that there are good reasons to claim very low predictability of currency nevertheless, the deviations from true randomness exist which have potential predictive and prognostic power [J.James, Quantitative finance 3…

In order to figure out and to forecast the emergence phenomena of social systems, we propose several probabilistic models for the analysis of financial markets, especially around a crisis. We first attempt to visualize the collective…

Throughout history, many countries have repeatedly experienced large swings in asset prices, which are usually accompanied by large fluctuations in macroeconomic activity. One of the characteristics of the period before major economic…

We consider a market where many agents trade many different types of products with each other. We model development of collective modes in this market, and quantify these by fluctuations that scale with time with a Hurst exponent of about…

Financial empirical correlation matrices of all the companies which both, the Deutsche Aktienindex (DAX) and the Dow Jones comprised during the time period 1990-1999 are studied using a time window of a limited, either 30 or 60, number of…

The financial markets are understood as complex dynamical systems whose dynamics is analysed mostly using nonstationary and brief data sets that usually come from stock markets. For such data sets, a reliable method of analysis is based on…

We introduce a stochastic price model where, together with a random component, a moving average of logarithmic prices contributes to the price formation. Our model is tested against financial datasets, showing an extremely good agreement…

This paper reviews some of the phenomenological models which have been introduced to incorporate the scaling properties of financial data. It also illustrates a microscopic model, based on heterogeneous interacting agents, which provides a…

In this brief review, we critically examine the recent work done on correlation-based networks in financial systems. The structure of empirical correlation matrices constructed from the financial market data changes as the individual stock…

Sharp changes in time series representing market dynamics are studied by means of the self--similar analysis suggested earlier by the authors. These sharp changes are market booms and crashes. Such crises phenomena in markets are analogous…

In the age of globalization, it is natural that the stock market of each country is not independent form the other markets. In this case, collective behavior could be emerged form their dependency together. This article studies the…

Financial markets are a typical example of complex systems where interactions between constituents lead to many remarkable features. Here, we show that a pairwise maximum entropy model (or auto-logistic model) is able to describe switches…

The measured correlations of financial time series in subsequent epochs change considerably as a function of time. When studying the whole correlation matrices, quasi-stationary patterns, referred to as market states, are seen by applying…

Using data from world stock exchange indices prior to and during periods of global financial crises, clusters and networks of indices are built for different thresholds and diverse periods of time, so that it is then possible to analyze how…

Macroeconomic fluctuations and the narratives that shape them form a mutually reinforcing cycle: public discourse can spur behavioural changes leading to economic shifts, which then result in changes in the stories that propagate. We show…

Universal scaling laws of fluctuations (the $\Delta$-scaling laws) can be derived for equilibrium and off-equilibrium systems when combined with the finite-size scaling analysis. In any system in which the second-order critical behavior can…

Recent developments in the global liberalization of equity and currency markets, coupled to advances in trading technologies, are making markets increasingly interdependent. This increased fluidity raises questions about the stability of…