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This paper studies an infinite horizon optimal control problem for discrete-time linear systems and quadratic criteria, both with random parameters which are independent and identically distributed with respect to time. A classical approach…

最优化与控制 · 数学 2020-11-11 Kai Du , Qingxin Meng , Fu Zhang

In this paper, we investigate the robust models for $\Lambda$-quantiles with partial information regarding the loss distribution, where $\Lambda$-quantiles extend the classical quantiles by replacing the fixed probability level with a…

数理金融 · 定量金融 2025-05-28 Xia Han , Peng Liu

Rate of convergence is studied for a diffusion process on the half line with a non-sticky reflection to a heavy-tailed 1D invariant distribution which density on the half line has a polynomial decay at infinity. Starting from a standard…

概率论 · 数学 2019-05-16 O. A. Manita , A. Yu. Veretennikov

We develop a Quantile Bayesian Vector Autoregression (QBVAR) to forecast real oil prices across different quantiles of the conditional distribution. The model allows predictor effects to vary across quantiles, capturing asymmetries that…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2026-04-15 Hilde C. Bjornland , Nicolas Hardy , Dimitris Korobilis

For highly skewed or fat-tailed distributions, mean or median-based methods often fail to capture the central tendencies in the data. Despite being a viable alternative, estimating the conditional mode given certain covariates (or mode…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2024-12-10 Eduardo Schirmer Finn , Eduardo Horta

We use bias-reduced estimators of high quantiles, of heavy-tailed distributions, to introduce a new estimator of the mean in the case of infinite second moment. The asymptotic normality of the proposed estimator is established and checked,…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2014-05-09 Brahim Brahimi , Djamel Meraghni , Abdelhakim Necir , Djabrane Yahia

Datasets with extreme observations and/or heavy-tailed error distributions are commonly encountered and should be analyzed with careful consideration of these features from a statistical perspective. Small deviations from an assumed model,…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-01-12 Meadhbh O'Neill , Kevin Burke

It has recently been shown that there are substantial differences in the regularity behavior of the empirical process based on scalar diffusions as compared to the classical empirical process, due to the existence of diffusion local time.…

概率论 · 数学 2011-05-25 Angelika Rohde , Claudia Strauch

Empirical-likelihood-based confidence intervals for a mean were introduced by Owen [Biometrika 75 (1988) 237-249], where at least a finite second moment is required. This excludes some important distributions, for example, those in the…

统计理论 · 数学 2007-06-13 Liang Peng

We focus on the construction of confidence corridors for multivariate nonparametric generalized quantile regression functions. This construction is based on asymptotic results for the maximal deviation between a suitable nonparametric…

统计理论 · 数学 2015-02-03 Shih-Kang Chao , Katharina Proksch , Holger Dette , Wolfgang Härdle

We introduce the notion of symmetric covariation, which is a new measure of dependence between two components of a symmetric $\alpha$-stable random vector, where the stability parameter $\alpha$ measures the heavy-tailedness of its…

统计理论 · 数学 2021-05-20 Yujia Ding , Qidi Peng

Estimating the structures at high or low quantiles has become an important subject and attracted increasing attention across numerous fields. However, due to data sparsity at tails, it usually is a challenging task to obtain reliable…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-11-08 Yingying Zhang , Yuefeng Si , Guodong Li , Chil-Ling Tsai

This paper focuses on generalizing quantiles from the ordering point of view. We propose the concept of partial quantiles, which are based on a given partial order. We establish that partial quantiles are equivariant under order-preserving…

统计理论 · 数学 2011-05-31 Alexandre Belloni , Robert L. Winkler

We offer a survey of recent results on covariance estimation for heavy-tailed distributions. By unifying ideas scattered in the literature, we propose user-friendly methods that facilitate practical implementation. Specifically, we…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2019-03-12 Yuan Ke , Stanislav Minsker , Zhao Ren , Qiang Sun , Wen-Xin Zhou

Linear quantile regression is a powerful tool to investigate how predictors may affect a response heterogeneously across different quantile levels. Unfortunately, existing approaches find it extremely difficult to adjust for any dependency…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2019-10-30 Xu Chen , Surya T. Tokdar

In this work, we consider systems that are subjected to intermittent instabilities due to external stochastic excitation. These intermittent instabilities, though rare, have a large impact on the probabilistic response of the system and…

混沌动力学 · 物理学 2017-06-02 Mustafa A. Mohamad , Themistoklis P. Sapsis

In this paper, we propose a distributionally robust safety verification method for Markov decision processes where only an ambiguous transition kernel is available instead of the precise transition kernel. We define the ambiguity set around…

系统与控制 · 电气工程与系统科学 2024-11-27 Abhijit Mazumdar , Yuting Hou , Rafal Wisniewski

A novel forecast combination and weighted quantile based tail-risk forecasting framework is proposed, aiming to reduce the impact of modelling uncertainty in tail-risk forecasting. The proposed approach is based on a two-step estimation…

风险管理 · 定量金融 2021-07-20 Giuseppe Storti , Chao Wang

In several different fields, there is interest in analyzing the upper or lower tail quantile of the underlying distribution rather than mean or center quantile. However, the investigation of the tail quantile is difficult because of data…

统计理论 · 数学 2019-03-21 Takuma Yoshida

Motivated by applications in hydrodynamics and networks of thermostatically-control loads in buildings we study control of linear dynamical systems driven by additive and also multiplicative noise of a general position. Utilizing…

系统与控制 · 电气工程与系统科学 2023-12-12 Michael Chertkov