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We study how the 2024 U.S. presidential election, viewed as a major political risk event, affected cryptocurrency markets by distinguishing human-driven peer-to-peer stablecoin transactions from automated algorithmic activity. Using…
We study quantitatively the level of false multifractal signal one may encounter while analyzing multifractal phenomena in time series within multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA). The investigated effect appears as a result…
We extend and test empirically the multifractal model of asset returns based on a multiplicative cascade of volatilities from large to small time scales. The multifractal description of asset fluctuations is generalized into a multivariate…
Considering that both the entropy-based market information and the Hurst exponent are useful tools for determining whether the efficient market hypothesis holds for a given asset, we study the link between the two approaches. We thus…
Using the asymmetric stochastic volatility model, this study investigates the day-of-the-week and holiday effects on the returns and volatility of Bitcoin from January 1, 2013 to August 31, 2019; in this context, we also discuss the…
Trading a financial asset pushes its price as well as the prices of other assets, a phenomenon known as cross-impact. The empirical estimation of this effect on complex financial instruments, such as derivatives, is an open problem. To…
We study how tariffs affect industrial structure and welfare in an economy where sectors are complements and preferences are nonhomothetic -- two drivers of structural change. Import tariffs on a sector influence sectoral composition by…
A phenomenological investigation of the endogenous and exogenous dynamics in the fluctuations of capital fluxes is investigated on the Chinese stock market using mean-variance analysis, fluctuation analysis and their generalizations to…
We explore the international transmission of monetary policy and central bank information shocks originating from the United States and the euro area. Employing a panel vector autoregression, we use macroeconomic and financial variables…
Cryptocurrency markets exhibit pronounced momentum effects and regime-dependent volatility, presenting both opportunities and challenges for systematic trading strategies. We propose AdaptiveTrend, a multi-component algorithmic trading…
This paper studies the impacts of stochastic load fluctuations, namely the fluctuation intensity and the changing speed of load power, on the size of the voltage stability margin. To this end, Stochastic Differential-Algebraic Equations…
Long-range correlation and fluctuation in the gold market time series of world's two leading gold consuming countries, namely China and India, are studied. For both the market series during the period 1985-2013 we observe a long-range…
We analyze the market efficiency of 25 commodity futures across various groups -- metals, energies, softs, grains and other agricultural commodities. To do so, we utilize recently proposed Efficiency Index to find that the most efficient of…
The inversion formula for conservative multifractal measures was unveiled mathematically a decade ago, which is however not well tested in real complex systems. In this Letter, we propose to verify the inversion formula using high-frequency…
Statistical and multiscaling characteristics of WTI Crude Oil prices expressed in US dollar in relation to the most traded currencies as well as to gold futures and to the E-mini S$\&$P500 futures prices on 5 min intra-day recordings in the…
In this paper we estimate a Bayesian vector autoregressive model with factor stochastic volatility in the error term to assess the effects of an uncertainty shock in the Euro area. This allows us to treat macroeconomic uncertainty as a…
We explore a decomposition in which returns on a large class of portfolios relative to the market depend on a smooth non-negative drift and changes in the asset price distribution. This decomposition is obtained using general continuous…
Recent empirical evidence has highlighted the crucial role of jumps in both price and volatility within the cryptocurrency market. In this paper, we integrate price--volatility co-jumps and volatility short-term dependency into a coherent…
This paper examines the short- and long-run effects of U.S. federal personal income and corporate income tax cuts on a wide array of economic policy variables in a data-rich environment. Using a panel of U.S. macroeconomic data set, made up…
Communication is now a standard tool in the central bank's monetary policy toolkit. Theoretically, communication provides the central bank an opportunity to guide public expectations, and it has been shown empirically that central bank…