相关论文: Multivariate Quadratic Hawkes Processes -- Part II…
An influential step in weather forecasting was the introduction of ensemble forecasts in operational use due to their capability to account for the uncertainties in the future state of the atmosphere. However, ensemble weather forecasts are…
This paper introduces the Neural Network for Nonlinear Hawkes processes (NNNH), a non-parametric method based on neural networks to fit nonlinear Hawkes processes. Our method is suitable for analyzing large datasets in which events exhibit…
Hawkes processes have recently risen to the forefront of tools when it comes to modeling and generating sequential events data. Multidimensional Hawkes processes model both the self and cross-excitation between different types of events and…
Despite extensive research on neural network calibration, existing methods typically apply global transformations that treat all predictions uniformly, overlooking the heterogeneous reliability of individual predictions. Furthermore, the…
This paper presents an option pricing model that incorporates clustered jumps using a bivariate Hawkes process. The process captures both self- and cross-excitation of positive and negative jumps, enabling the model to generate return…
Hawkes processes are a class of self-exciting point processes that are used to model complex phenomena. While most applications of Hawkes processes assume that event data occurs in continuous-time, the less-studied discrete-time version of…
This paper addresses nonparametric estimation of nonlinear multivariate Hawkes processes, where the interaction functions are assumed to lie in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS). Motivated by applications in neuroscience, the model…
The quadratic rough Heston model provides a natural way to encode Zumbach effect in the rough volatility paradigm. We apply multi-factor approximation and use deep learning methods to build an efficient calibration procedure for this model.…
We provide probabilistic and computational results on Markovian multivariate Hawkes processes and induced population processes. By applying the Markov property, we characterize in closed form a joint transform, bijective to the probability…
In this paper, we present a nonparametric estimation procedure for the multivariate Hawkes point process. The timeline is cut into bins and -- for each component process -- the number of points in each bin is counted. The distribution of…
We propose a novel nonparametric approach for linking covariates to Continuous Time Markov Chains (CTMCs) using the mathematical framework of Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Spaces (RKHS). CTMCs provide a robust framework for modeling…
Event-driven systems in fields such as neuroscience, social networks, and finance often exhibit dynamics influenced by continuously evolving external covariates. Motivated by these applications, we introduce a new class of multivariate…
A new semi-parametric Expected Shortfall (ES) estimation and forecasting framework is proposed. The proposed approach is based on a two-step estimation procedure. The first step involves the estimation of Value-at-Risk (VaR) at different…
In a Bayesian setting, inverse problems and uncertainty quantification (UQ) - the propagation of uncertainty through a computational (forward) model - are strongly connected. In the form of conditional expectation the Bayesian update…
Hawkes process models are used in settings where past events increase the likelihood of future events occurring. Many applications record events as counts on a regular grid, yet discrete-time Hawkes models remain comparatively underused and…
We propose a nonparametric bootstrap procedure for two-phase stratified sampling without replacement. In this design, a weighted likelihood estimator is known to have smaller asymptotic variance than under the convenient assumption of…
Targeting a better understanding of credit market dynamics, the authors have studied a stochastic model named the Hawkes process. Describing trades arrival times, this kind of model allows for the capture of self-excitement and mutual…
The local volatility model is a widely used for pricing and hedging financial derivatives. While its main appeal is its capability of reproducing any given surface of observed option prices---it provides a perfect fit---the essential…
We propose novel quadratic performance tests for linear discrete-time impulsive systems based on viewing these systems as feedback interconnections of some non-impulsive linear system with an impulsive operator. In order to systematically…
Multivariate Hawkes Processes (MHPs) are a class of point processes that can account for complex temporal dynamics among event sequences. In this work, we study the accuracy and computational efficiency of three classes of algorithms which,…