相关论文: Who's at Risk? Effects of Inflation on Unemploymen…

Inflation exhibits state-dependent, skewed, and fat-tailed dynamics that make risk a central concern for monetary policy. Accordingly, inflation risks are distributional and cannot be fully captured by mean-based models. We propose a…

Growth-at-Risk has recently become a key measure of macroeconomic tail-risk, which has seen it be researched extensively. Surprisingly, the same cannot be said for Inflation-at-Risk where both tails, deflation and high inflation, are of key…

Assessing the contribution of various risk factors to future inflation risks was crucial for guiding monetary policy during the recent high inflation period. However, existing methodologies often provide limited insights by focusing solely…

In a globalised world, inflation in a given country may be becoming less responsive to domestic economic activity, while being increasingly determined by international conditions. Consequently, understanding the international sources of…

Unemployment insurance provides temporary cash benefits to eligible unemployed workers. Benefits are sometimes extended by discretion during economic slumps. In a model that features temporary benefits and sequential job opportunities, a…

The notion that an independent central bank reduces a country's inflation is a controversial hypothesis. To date, it has not been possible to satisfactorily answer this question because the complex macroeconomic structure that gives rise to…

In this paper, we analyze the long-term distributive impact of climate change through rising food prices. We use a standard incomplete markets model and account for non-linear Engel curves for food consumption. For the calibration of our…

Traditionally, the impact of minimum wages on employment has been studied, and it is generally believed to have a negative effect. Yet, some recent studies have shown that the impact of minimum wages on employment can sometimes be positive.…

Both inflation and unemployment inflict social losses. When a tradeoff exists between the two, what would be the best combination of inflation and unemployment? A well known approach in economics to address this question consists to write…

We study the distributional implications of uncertainty shocks by developing a model that links macroeconomic aggregates to the US distribution of earnings and consumption. We find that: initially, the fraction of low-earning workers…

The existence of involuntary unemployment advocated by J. M. Keynes is a very important problem of the modern economic theory. Using a three-generations overlapping generations model, we show that the existence of involuntary unemployment…

In this study, we seek to understand how macroeconomic factors such as GDP, inflation, Unemployment Insurance, and S&P 500 index; as well as microeconomic factors such as health, race, and educational attainment impacted the unemployment…

This paper explores asset pricing implications of unemployment risk from sectoral shifts. I proxy for this risk using cross-industry dispersion (CID), defined as a mean absolute deviation of returns of 49 industry portfolios. CID peaks…

The relationship between inflation and predictors such as unemployment is potentially nonlinear with a strength that varies over time, and prediction errors error may be subject to large, asymmetric shocks. Inspired by these concerns, we…

In the recent times of global Covid pandemic, the Federal Reserve has raised the concerns of upsurges in prices. Given the complexity of interaction between inflation and inequality, we examine whether the impact of inflation on inequality…

This paper studies the extent to which the cyclicality of occupational mobility shapes that of aggregate unemployment and its duration distribution. We document the relation between workers' occupational mobility and unemployment duration…

When a firm hires a worker, adding the new hire to payroll is costly. These costs reduce the amount of resources that can go to recruiting workers and amplify how unemployment responds to changes in productivity. Workers also incur up-front…

Economic models assume that payroll tax burdens fall fully on workers, but where does tax incidence fall when taxes are firm-specific and time-varying? Unemployment insurance in the United States has the key feature of varying both across…

This paper examines the impact of increasing minimum wages, focusing primarily on their effect on employment. Our research involved analyzing the statistics of panel data, testing fixed effects and stationary, conducting linear regression,…

This study investigates the causal relationship between the COVID-19 pandemic and wage levels, aiming to provide a quantified assessment of the impact. While no significant evidence is found for long-term effects, the analysis reveals a…