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We obtain explicit $p$-Wasserstein distance error bounds between the distribution of the multi-parameter MLE and the multivariate normal distribution. Our general bounds are given for possibly high-dimensional, independent and identically…

统计理论 · 数学 2021-12-28 Andreas Anastasiou , Robert E. Gaunt

In this paper we consider the estimation of unknown parameters in Bayesian inverse problems. In most cases of practical interest, there are several barriers to performing such estimation, This includes a numerical approximation of a…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-02-07 Neil K. Chada , Ajay Jasra , Mohamed Maama , Raul Tempone

Auto-regressive sequence generative models trained by Maximum Likelihood Estimation suffer the exposure bias problem in practical finite sample scenarios. The crux is that the number of training samples for Maximum Likelihood Estimation is…

机器学习 · 统计学 2020-07-14 Yuxuan Song , Ning Miao , Hao Zhou , Lantao Yu , Mingxuan Wang , Lei Li

Research in NLP is often supported by experimental results, and improved reporting of such results can lead to better understanding and more reproducible science. In this paper we analyze three statistical estimators for expected validation…

计算与语言 · 计算机科学 2021-10-05 Jesse Dodge , Suchin Gururangan , Dallas Card , Roy Schwartz , Noah A. Smith

A scalar Langevin-type process $X(t)$ that is driven by Ornstein-Uhlenbeck noise $\eta(t)$ is non-Markovian. However, the joint dynamics of $X$ and $\eta$ is described by a Markov process in two dimensions. But even though there exists a…

数据分析、统计与概率 · 物理学 2018-01-17 B. Lehle , J. Peinke

Maximum likelihood estimates are often biased. It is shown that this pathology is inherent to the traditional ML estimation method for two or more parameters, thus motivating from a different angle the use of MCMLE.

统计理论 · 数学 2013-12-31 Yannis G. Yatracos

Unbiased estimators are introduced for averaged Bregman divergences which generalize Stein's Unbiased (Predictive) Risk Estimator, and the minimization of these estimators is proposed as a regularization parameter selection method for…

数值分析 · 数学 2021-11-22 Elias S. Helou , Sandra A. Santos , Lucas E. A. Simões

We consider the problem of estimating the parameters of a non-stationary Hawkes process with time-dependent reproduction rate and baseline intensity. Our approach relies on the standard maximum likelihood estimator (MLE), coinciding with…

统计理论 · 数学 2025-06-04 Thomas Deschatre , Pierre Gruet , Antoine Lotz

Regularized system identification has become a significant complement to more classical system identification. It has been numerically shown that kernel-based regularized estimators often perform better than the maximum likelihood estimator…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-03-18 Yue Ju , Bo Wahlberg , Håkan Hjalmarsson

We advocate for a practical Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) approach towards designing loss functions for regression and forecasting, as an alternative to the typical approach of direct empirical risk minimization on a specific target…

机器学习 · 统计学 2021-10-12 Pranjal Awasthi , Abhimanyu Das , Rajat Sen , Ananda Theertha Suresh

\noindent \textbf{Abstract}: We consider the parameter estimation problem for the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process $X$ driven by a fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process $V$, i.e. the pair of processes defined by the non-Markovian continuous-time…

概率论 · 数学 2016-10-14 Brahim El Onsy , Khalifa Es-Sebaiy , Frederi G. Viens

We propose a new unbiased estimator for estimating the utility of the optimal stopping problem. The MUSE, short for Multilevel Unbiased Stopping Estimator, constructs the unbiased Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) estimator at every stage of…

统计计算 · 统计学 2022-12-29 Zhengqing Zhou , Guanyang Wang , Jose Blanchet , Peter W. Glynn

This paper deals with the rate of convergence for the central limit theorem of estimators of the drift coefficient, denoted $\theta$, for a Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process $X \coloneqq \{X_t,t\geq0\}$ observed at high frequency. We provide an…

统计理论 · 数学 2022-11-22 Khalifa Es-Sebaiy , Fares Alazemi , Mishari Al-Foraih

The aim of this work is to estimate the drift coefficient of a fractional heat equation driven by an additive space-time noise using the Maximum likelihood estimator (MLE). In the first part of the paper, the first $N$ Fourier modes of the…

统计理论 · 数学 2024-09-10 Soukaina Douissi , Fatimah Alshahrani

We derive the optimal energy error estimate for multiscale finite element method with oversampling technique applying to elliptic system with rapidly oscillating periodic coefficients under the assumption that the coefficients are bounded…

数值分析 · 数学 2023-10-23 Pingbing Ming , Siqi Song

We study an optimal execution problem in the presence of market impact where the security price follows a geometric Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, which implies the mean-reverting property, and show that the optimal strategy is a mixture of…

交易与市场微观结构 · 定量金融 2014-07-30 Takashi Kato

Filtering and parameter estimation under partial information for multiscale problems is studied in this paper. After proving mean square convergence of the nonlinear filter to a filter of reduced dimension, we establish that the conditional…

概率论 · 数学 2014-09-09 Andrew Papanicolaou , Konstantinos Spiliopoulos

A number of problems in quantum state and system identification are addressed. Specifically, it is shown that the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) approach, already known to apply to quantum state tomography, is also applicable to…

量子物理 · 物理学 2007-05-23 Robert Kosut , Ian A. Walmsley , Herschel Rabitz

This paper deals with the problem of inference associated with linear fractional diffusion process with random effects in the drift. In particular we are concerned with the maximum likelihood estimators (MLE) of the random effect…

统计理论 · 数学 2019-12-04 El Omari Mohamed , Hamid El Maroufy , Christiane Fuchs

We examine a mean-reverting Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process that perturbs an unknown Lipschitz-continuous drift and aim to estimate the drift's value at a predetermined time horizon by sampling the path of the process. Due to the time varying…