相关论文: Modeling and forecasting subnational age distribut…

Age-disaggregated health data is crucial for effective public health planning and monitoring. Monitoring under-five mortality, for example, requires highly detailed age data since the distribution of potential causes of death varies…

Conformal prediction provides a model-agnostic framework for uncertainty quantification with finite-sample validity guarantees, making it an attractive tool for constructing reliable prediction sets. However, existing approaches commonly…

Accurate estimates of the under-5 mortality rate (U5MR) in a developing world context are a key barometer of the health of a nation. This paper describes new models to analyze survey data on mortality in this context. We are interested in…

The aim of this paper is to propose a realistic and operational model to quantify the systematic risk of mortality included in an engagement of retirement. The model presented is built on the basis of model of Lee-Carter. The stochastic…

We develop a Bayesian state-space model for analyzing the dynamic evolution of income distributions using grouped income data. The model combines the generalized beta distribution of the second kind (GB2) with latent time-varying parameters…

The number of extant individuals within a lineage, as exemplified by counts of species numbers across genera in a higher taxonomic category, is known to be a highly skewed distribution. Because the sublineages (such as genera in a clade)…

Assessing climate-driven mortality risk has become an emerging area of research in recent decades. In this paper, we propose a novel approach to explicitly incorporate climate-driven effects into both single- and multi-population stochastic…

We study the probabilistic evolution of a birth and death continuous time measure-valued process with mutations and ecological interactions. The individuals are characterized by (phenotypic) traits that take values in a compact metric…

Standard evolutionary theories of aging and mortality, implicitly based on assumptions of spatial averaging, hold that natural selection cannot favor shorter lifespan without direct compensating benefit to individual reproductive success.…

Accurate estimates of subnational populations are important for policy formulation and monitoring population health indicators. For example, estimates of the number of women of reproductive age are important to understand the population at…

Conventional survival analysis approaches estimate risk scores or individualized time-to-event distributions conditioned on covariates. In practice, there is often great population-level phenotypic heterogeneity, resulting from (unknown)…

Application of some basic notions and statistics of ageing distributions used in mathematical theory of reliability including the Gini-type index is discussed as a methodological tool for investigation of human population ageing and…

Many investigations have used panel methods to study the relationships between fluctuations in economic activity and mortality. A broad consensus has emerged on the overall procyclical nature of mortality: perhaps counter-intuitively,…

In this paper, we advance the network theory of aging and mortality by developing a causal mathematical model for the mortality rate. First, we show that in large networks, where health deficits accumulate at nodes representing health…

In usual demographic analysis, force of mortality is a function of one variable, that is, of age. In this article bi-variate and multivariate force of mortality functions are introduced for the first time to explain mortality differentials.…

By introducing the notions of living and dead nodes a new model of random tree evolution with continuous time parameter has been constructed. It is assumed that two random variables, the lifetime and the offspring number of living nodes…

The United Nations released official probabilistic population projections (PPP) for all countries for the first time in July 2014. These were obtained by projecting the period total fertility rate (TFR) and life expectancy at birth ($e_0$)…

The Lee Carter modelling framework is widely used because of its simplicity and robustness despite its inability to model specific cohort effects. A large number of extensions have been proposed that model cohort effects but there is no…

The estimation of time-varying quantities is a fundamental component of decision making in fields such as healthcare and finance. However, the practical utility of such estimates is limited by how accurately they quantify predictive…

Understanding the underlying causes of maternal death across all regions of the world is essential to inform policies and resource allocation to reduce the mortality burden. However, in many countries there exists very little data on the…