相关论文: Modeling and forecasting subnational age distribut…

We propose a dual-factor model for high-dimensional functional time series (HDFTS) that considers multiple populations. The HDFTS is first decomposed into a collection of functional time series (FTS) in a lower dimension and a group of…

In this paper, we introduce a general numerical method to approximate the reproduction numbers of a large class of multi-group, age-structured, population models with a finite age span. To provide complete flexibility in the definition of…

This paper presents a novel approach to stochastic mortality modelling by using the Conway--Maxwell--Poisson (CMP) distribution to model death counts. Unlike standard Poisson or negative binomial distributions, the CMP is a more adaptable…

Parameter shrinkage applied optimally can always reduce error and projection variances from those of maximum likelihood estimation. Many variables that actuaries use are on numerical scales, like age or year, which require parameters at…

A common goal in modeling demographic rates is to compare two or more groups. For ex- ample comparing mortality rates between men and women or between geographic regions may reveal health inequalities. A popular class of models for…

Risk prediction is central to both clinical medicine and public health. While many machine learning models have been developed to predict mortality, they are rarely applied in the clinical literature, where classification tasks typically…

BACKGROUND There is an increasing demand for high quality subnational estimates of under-five mortality. In low and middle income countries, where the burden of under-five mortality is concentrated, vital registration is often lacking and…

A widely-used model for determining the long-term health impacts of public health interventions, often called a "multistate lifetable", requires estimates of incidence, case fatality, and sometimes also remission rates, for multiple…

In the past six decades, lifespan inequality has varied greatly within and among countries even while life expectancy has continued to increase. How and why does mortality change generate this diversity? We derive a precise link between…

Death events commonly arise from complex interactions among interrelated causes, formally classified in reporting practices as underlying and contributing. Leveraging information from death certificates, these interactions can be naturally…

Predicting the evolution of mortality rates plays a central role for life insurance and pension funds.Various stochastic frameworks have been developed to model mortality patterns taking into account the main stylized facts driving these…

The Penna model is a strategy to simulate the genetic dynamics of age-structured populations, in which the individuals genomes are represented by bit-strings. It provides a simple metaphor for the evolutionary process in terms of the…

Adult death rates are a critical indicator of population health and wellbeing. Wealthy countries have high-quality vital registration systems, but poor countries lack this infrastructure and must rely on estimates that are often…

This paper explores and develops alternative statistical representations and estimation approaches for dynamic mortality models. The framework we adopt is to reinterpret popular mortality models such as the Lee-Carter class of models in a…

Indirect standardization is widely used in disease mapping to control for confounding, but relies on restrictive assumptions that may bias estimates if violated. Using data on suicide-related emergency calls, this study highlights such…

A linear mixed-effects (LME) model is proposed for modelling and forecasting single and multi-population age-specific death rates (ASDRs). The innovative approach that we take in this study treats age, the interaction between gender and…

We numerically address the stability analysis of linear age-structured population models with nonlocal diffusion, which arise naturally in describing dynamics of infectious diseases. Compared to Laplace diffusion, models with nonlocal…

We study actuarial fairness in China's notional defined contribution (NDC) pension system when mortality differs across income groups. Under current rules, individual account balances are converted into monthly benefits using an official…

Background: While deep learning technology, which has the capability of obtaining latent representations based on large-scale data, can be a potential solution for the discovery of a novel aging biomarker, existing deep learning methods for…

Continuous-time multi-state survival models can be used to describe health-related processes over time. In the presence of interval-censored times for transitions between the living states, the likelihood is constructed using transition…