相关论文: Modeling and forecasting subnational age distribut…

We investigate state-level age-specific mortality trends based on the United States Mortality Database (USMDB) published by the Human Mortality Database. In tandem with looking at the longevity experience across the 51 states, we also…

Predicting the risk of death for chronic patients is highly valuable for informed medical decision-making. This paper proposes a general framework for dynamic prediction of the risk of death of a patient given her hospitalization history,…

The significance of mortality modeling extends across multiple research areas, ranging from life insurance valuation to optimal lifetime decision-making. Existing approaches, such as mortality laws and factor-based models, often fall short…

New and efficient methods based on noise addition to protect the confidentiality in population statistics have been developed, tested and applied in census production by various members of the European Statistical System over the past…

Although the concepts of age, survival and transit time have been widely used in many fields, including population dynamics, chemical engineering, and hydrology, a comprehensive mathematical framework is still missing. Here we discuss…

Age-specific probabilities of death provide a snapshot of population mortality at the country level at a given point in time. Due to the high dimensionality of the data, summarising mortality information is essential for various analyses,…

This paper is concerned with forecasting probability density functions. Density functions are nonnegative and have a constrained integral; thus, they do not constitute a vector space. Implementing unconstrained functional time-series…

Distribution regression has recently attracted much interest as a generic solution to the problem of supervised learning where labels are available at the group level, rather than at the individual level. Current approaches, however, do not…

This paper generalizes a previously published differential equation that describes the relation between the age-specific incidence, remission, and mortality of a disease with its prevalence. The underlying model is a simple compartment…

This study introduces an innovative methodology for mortality forecasting, which integrates signature-based methods within the functional data framework of the Hyndman-Ullah (HU) model. This new approach, termed the Hyndman-Ullah with…

Recently, we have shown that the age-specific prevalence of a disease can be related to the transition rates in the illness-death model via a partial differential equation (PDE). In case of a chronic disease, we show that the PDE can be…

We propose new methods for the prediction of 5-year mortality in elderly individuals using chest computed tomography (CT). The methods consist of a classifier that performs this prediction using a set of features extracted from the CT image…

Diverse analysis approaches have been proposed to distinguish data missing due to death from nonresponse, and to summarize trajectories of longitudinal data truncated by death. We demonstrate how these analysis approaches arise from…

The improvement of mortality projection is a pivotal topic in the diverse branches related to insurance, demography, and public policy. Motivated by the thread of Lee-Carter related models, we propose a Bayesian model to estimate and…

In recent years, a wide range of mortality models has been proposed to address the diverse factors influencing mortality rates, which has highlighted the need to perform model selection. Traditional mortality model selection methods, such…

Hundreds of millions of people live in countries that do not have complete death registration systems, meaning that most deaths are not recorded and critical quantities like life expectancy cannot be directly measured. The sibling survival…

Accurate and precise estimates of the under-5 mortality rate (U5MR) are an important health summary for countries. However, full survival curves allow us to better understand the pattern of mortality in children under five. Modern…

As populations age, the rise of multimorbidity poses a significant healthcare challenge. However, our ability to quantitatively forecast the progression of multimorbidity remains limited. Leveraging a nationwide dataset comprising…

For many applications of agent-based models (ABMs), an agent's age influences important decisions (e.g. their contribution to/withdrawal from pension funds, their level of risk aversion in decision-making, etc.) and outcomes in their life…

The study considers the model of an abstract organism, called Arbitrary Oscillator (ArbO), which is capable of making decisions at each timed step. These decisions are 'critical' since, randomly, their outcome can be 'fatal' for ArbO, thus…