相关论文: Bayesian Inference of Geometric Brownian Motion: A…

We take a new look at the problem of disentangling the volatility and jumps processes of daily stock returns. We first provide a computational framework for the univariate stochastic volatility model with Poisson-driven jumps that offers a…

In this paper, we focus on the statistical filtering problem in dynamical models with jumps. When a particular application relies on physical properties which are modeled by linear and Gaussian probability density functions with jumps, an…

Modeling financial data often relies on assumptions that may prove insufficient or unrealistic in practice. The Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) model is frequently employed to represent stock price processes. This study investigates whether…

The velocity-jump model is a specific type of piecewise deterministic Markov process in which an individual's velocity is constant except at times that form the events of some point process. It represents an interpretable continuous-time…

An innovative extension of Geometric Brownian Motion model is developed by incorporating a weighting factor and a stochastic function modelled as a mixture of power and trigonometric functions. Simulations based on this Modified Brownian…

We consider a backward stochastic differential equation with jumps (BSDEJ) which is driven by a Brownian motion and a Poisson random measure. We present two candidate-approximations to this BSDEJ and we prove that the solution of each…

In this paper, we study the portfolio utility maximization in the case where the risky asset is driven by a Brownian motion and an independent homogeneous Poisson measure, with strategies that may include jump signals. This means that the…

This paper presents a novel approach to predicting stock prices using technical analysis. By utilizing Ito's lemma and Euler-Maruyama methods, the researchers develop Heston and Geometric Brownian Motion models that take into account…

Dynamic jumps in the price and volatility of an asset are modelled using a joint Hawkes process in conjunction with a bivariate jump diffusion. A state space representation is used to link observed returns, plus nonparametric measures of…

We consider continuous-time diffusion models driven by fractional Brownian motion. Observations are assumed to possess a non-trivial likelihood given the latent path. Due to the non-Markovianity and high-dimensionality of the latent paths,…

We consider a stochastic volatility model with jumps where the underlying asset price is driven by the process sum of a 2-dimensional Brownian motion and a 2-dimensional compensated Poisson process. The market is incomplete, resulting in…

Volatility estimation based on high-frequency data is key to accurately measure and control the risk of financial assets. A L\'{e}vy process with infinite jump activity and microstructure noise is considered one of the simplest, yet…

Generalized linear mixed models (GLMM) are used for inference and prediction in a wide range of different applications providing a powerful scientific tool. An increasing number of sources of data are becoming available, introducing a…

We begin by exploring the intuition of Brownian motion by explaining its birth through the observations of Robert Brown and later through Bachelier's work on its applications to the financial market and finally its rigorous and concretized…

We present a Bayesian inference scheme for scaled Brownian motion, and investigate its performance on synthetic data for parameter estimation and model selection in a combined inference with fractional Brownian motion. We include the…

Flight delay is a significant issue affecting air travel. The runway system, frequently falling short of demand, serves as a bottleneck. As demand increases, runway capacity expansion becomes imperative to mitigate congestion. However, the…

Adaptive importance sampling techniques are widely known for the Gaussian setting of Brownian driven diffusions. In this work, we want to extend them to jump processes. Our approach relies on a change of the jump intensity combined with the…

The purpose of the article is twofold. Firstly, we review some recent results on the maximum likelihood estimation in the regression model of the form $X_t = \theta G(t) + B_t$, where $B$ is a Gaussian process, $G(t)$ is a known function,…

Bayesian inference for Markov jump processes (MJPs) where available observations relate to either system states or jumps typically relies on data-augmentation Markov Chain Monte Carlo. State-of-the-art developments involve representing MJP…

We study a generalized geometric Brownian motion framework that incorporates both entries of new units and exit mechanisms for the current population, extending earlier stochastic resetting models where these rates are treated as identical.…