相关论文: Applied Probability Insights into Nonlinear Epidem…

We have studied the dynamic evolution of the Covid-19 pandemic in Argentina. The marked heterogeneity in population density and the very extensive geography of the country becomes a challenge itself. Standard compartment models fail when…

This paper is concerned with a stochastic model for the spread of an SEIR (susceptible -> exposed (=latent) -> infective -> removed) epidemic with a contact tracing scheme, in which removed individuals may name some of their infectious…

The primary goal of this research is to investigate the impact of delay on the dynamics of the Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered-Death and Susceptible (SEIRDS) model, to which we add a stochastic term to account for uncertainty in…

Dynamic properties of spreading infection through a heterogeneous population are studied numerically and analytically using a dynamic variant of Watts and Strogatz Small World Network-based stochastic Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed…

The extinction and persistence of infective individuals are closely related to the random change of the environment. In this paper, via the random/stochastic SIRS models, we analyze qualitatively and quantitatively the impact caused by the…

This paper considers a susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) epidemic reaction-diffusion model with no-flux boundary conditions and varying total population. The interaction of the susceptible and infected people is describe by the…

The worldwide spread of COVID-19 has called for fast advancement of new modelling strategies to estimate its unprecedented spread. Here, we introduce a model based on the fundamental SIR equations with a stochastic disorder by a random…

This paper is concerned with nonlinear modeling and analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic currently ravaging the planet. There are two objectives: to arrive at an appropriate model that captures the collected data faithfully, and to use that as…

Throughout the course of an epidemic, the rate at which disease spreads varies with behavioral changes, the emergence of new disease variants, and the introduction of mitigation policies. Estimating such changes in transmission rates can…

With the prevalence of COVID-19, the modeling of epidemic propagation and its analyses have played a significant role in controlling epidemics. However, individual behaviors, in particular the self-protection and migration, which have a…

The impact of spatial structure on the spread of an epidemic is an important issue in the propagation of infectious diseases. Recent studies, both deterministic and stochastic, have made it possible to understand the importance of the…

Understanding infectious disease spread remains a critical public health challenge, particularly given the interplay between household dynamics and community transmission patterns. Traditional epidemiological models often oversimplify these…

We introduce a stochastic SIR-type partial differential equation model incorporating random diffusion, reinfection, vital dynamics, and a randomly varying transmission rate. For the associated random dynamical system, we prove the existence…

This paper investigates asymptotic behavior of a stochastic SIR epidemic model, which is a system with degenerate diffusion. It gives sufficient conditions that are very close to the necessary conditions for the permanence. In addition,…

We present a compartmental SEIAR model of epidemic spread as a generalization of the SEIR model. We believe that the asymptomatic infectious cohort is an omitted part of the understanding of the epidemic dynamics of disease COVID-19. We…

The aim of the paper is to describe two models of Covid-19 infection dynamics. For this purpose a special class of branching processes with two types of individuals is considered. These models are intended to use only the observed daily…

We study a multi-group SAIRS-type epidemic model with vaccination. The role of asymptomatic and symptomatic infectious individuals is explicitly considered in the transmission pattern of the disease among the groups in which the population…

In this paper we consider the stability of a class of deterministic and stochastic SEIRS epidemic models with delay. Indeed, we assume that the transmission rate could be stochastic and the presence of a latency period of $r$ consecutive…

We analyze four models of epidemic spreading using a stochastic approach in which the primary stochastic variables are the numbers of individuals in each class. The stochastic approach is described by a master equation and the transition…

Dynamics on networks is considered from the perspective of Markov stochastic processes. We partially describe the state of the system through network motifs and infer any missing data using the available information. This versatile approach…