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We study epidemic models where the infectivity of each individual is a random function of the infection age (the elapsed time of infection). To describe the epidemic evolution dynamics, we use a stochastic process that tracks the number of…

概率论 · 数学 2023-01-02 Guodong Pang , Etienne Pardoux

We study the fluctuations of a stochastic epidemic model with memory of the last infections, varying infectivity, and waning immunity, as introduced in Guerin and Zotsa-Ngoufack:arXiv preprint arXiv:2505.00601. The dynamics of the epidemic…

概率论 · 数学 2025-05-28 Arsene Brice Zotsa-Ngoufack

We study non-Markovian stochastic epidemic models (SIS, SIR, SIRS, and SEIR), in which the infectious (and latent/exposing, immune) periods have a general distribution. We provide a representation of the evolution dynamics using the time…

概率论 · 数学 2021-06-25 Guodong Pang , Etienne Pardoux

In this paper, we prove functional central limit theorems (FCLTs) for a stochastic epidemic model with varying infectivity and general infectious periods recently introduced in Forien, Pang and Pardoux (2020).The infectivity process (total…

概率论 · 数学 2022-09-13 Guodong Pang , Etienne Pardoux

We introduce an epidemic model with varying infectivity and general exposed and infectious periods, where the infectivity of each individual is a random function of the elapsed time since infection, those function being i.i.d. for the…

概率论 · 数学 2021-06-01 Raphael Forien , Guodong Pang , Etienne Pardoux

We study an individual-based stochastic epidemic model in which infected individuals become susceptible again following each infection (generalized SIS model). Specifically, after each infection, the infectivity is a random function of the…

概率论 · 数学 2025-04-29 Arsene-Brice Zotsa-Ngoufack

We study an individual-based stochastic epidemic model in which infected individuals become susceptible again following each infection. In contrast to classical compartment models, after each infection, the infectivity is a random function…

We study an individual-based stochastic spatial epidemic model where the number of locations and the number of individuals at each location both grow to infinity. Each individual is associated with a random infection-age dependent…

概率论 · 数学 2025-10-21 Guodong Pang , Etienne Pardoux

In this survey paper, we review the recent advances in individual based non--Markovian epidemic models. They include epidemic models with a constant infectivity rate, varying infectivity rate or infection-age dependent infectivity,…

概率论 · 数学 2022-09-26 Raphael Forien , Guodong Pang , Etienne Pardoux

We study an individual-based stochastic SIR epidemic model with infection-age dependent infectivity on a large random graph, capturing individual heterogeneity and non-homogeneous connectivity. Each individual is associated with particular…

概率论 · 数学 2026-02-11 Guodong Pang , Étienne Pardoux , Aurélien Velleret

We study multi-patch epidemic models where individuals may migrate from one patch to another in either of the susceptible, exposed/latent, infectious and recovered states. We assume that infections occur both locally with a rate that…

概率论 · 数学 2022-08-31 Guodong Pang , Etienne Pardoux

We study a stochastic compartmental susceptible-infected (SI) epidemic process on a configuration model random graph with a given degree distribution over a finite time interval $[0,T],$ for some $ T>0$. In this setting, we split the…

We study a stochastic epidemic model with multiple patches (locations), where individuals in each patch are categorized into three compartments, Susceptible, Infected and Recovered/Removed, and may migrate from one patch to another in any…

概率论 · 数学 2023-08-21 Guodong Pang , Etienne Pardoux

This paper presents a law of large numbers result, as the size of the population tends to infinity, of SIR stochastic epidemic models, for a population distributed over $L$ distinct patches (with migrations between them) and $K$ distinct…

概率论 · 数学 2022-06-24 Raphaël Forien , Guodong Pang , Étienne Pardoux

The impact of spatial structure on the spread of an epidemic is an important issue in the propagation of infectious diseases. Recent studies, both deterministic and stochastic, have made it possible to understand the importance of the…

概率论 · 数学 2023-01-09 Alphonse Emakoua

In this article, we study an interacting particle system in the context of epidemiology where the individuals (particles) are characterized by their position and infection state. We begin with a description at the microscopic level where…

概率论 · 数学 2022-12-06 Maxime Hauray , Etienne Pardoux , Yen V. Vuong

In this paper, we study the dynamics of the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model on a network with community structure, namely the stochastic block model (SBM). As usual, the SIR model is a stochastic model for an epidemic where…

概率论 · 数学 2024-10-10 Christian Borgs , Karissa Huang , Christian Ikeokwu

We adapt the article of Forien, Pang, Pardoux and Zotsa: Arxiv preprint Arxiv2210.04667(2022), on epidemic models with varying infectivity and waning immunity, to incorporate the memory of the last infection. To this end, we introduce a…

概率论 · 数学 2025-05-02 Hélène Guérin , Arsene Brice Zotsa-Ngoufack

Fractional-order SIR models have become increasingly popular in the literature in recent years, however unlike the standard SIR model, they often lack a derivation from an underlying stochastic process. Here we derive a fractional-order…

种群与进化 · 定量生物学 2016-03-31 Christopher N Angstmann , Bruce I Henry , Anna V McGann

This paper focuses on and analyzes realistic SIR models that take stochasticity into account. The proposed systems are applicable to most incidence rates that are used in the literature including the bilinear incidence rate, the…

概率论 · 数学 2024-07-10 Nguyen Du , Alexandru Hening , Nhu Nguyen , George Yin
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