相关论文: Large-scale Epidemiological modeling: Scanning for…
In this work we study the influence of populations mobility on the spread of a vector-borne disease. We focus on the chikungunya epidemic event that occurred in 2005-2006 on the R\'eunion Island, Indian Ocean, France, and validate our…
Dengue is a vector-borne disease transmitted from an infected human to an Aedes mosquito, during a blood-meal. Dengue is still a major public health problem. A model for the disease transmission is presented, composed by human and…
Understanding the spread of any disease is a highly complex and interdisciplinary exercise as biological, social, geographic, economic, and medical factors may shape the way a disease moves through a population and options for its eventual…
A model for the transmission of dengue disease is presented. It consists of eight mutually-exclusive compartments representing the human and vector dynamics. It also includes a control parameter (insecticide) in order to fight the…
Understanding the dynamics of infectious disease spread in a heterogeneous population is an important factor in designing control strategies. Here, we develop a novel tensor-driven multi-compartment version of the classic…
Epidemics like Covid-19 and Ebola have impacted people's lives significantly. The impact of mobility of people across the countries or states in the spread of epidemics has been significant. The spread of disease due to factors local to the…
Even as the incidence of mosquito-borne diseases like West Nile Virus (WNV) in North America has risen over the past decade, effectively modelling mosquito population density or, the abundance has proven to be a persistent challenge. It is…
Our recent experience with the COVID-19 pandemic amply shows that spatial effects like the mobility of agents and average interpersonal distance, together with the adaptation of agents, are very important in deciding the outcome of epidemic…
Dengue virus transmission models commonly assume an exponential distribution for the mosquito extrinsic incubation period (EIP), potentially oversimplifying biological variability. We developed a stochastic mechanistic dengue transmission…
Throughout history, prevention and control of dengue transmission have challenged public health authorities worldwide. In the last decades, the interaction of multiple factors, such as environmental and climate variability, has influenced…
Spatio-temporal counts of infectious disease cases often contain an excess of zeros. With existing zero inflated count models applied to such data it is difficult to quantify space-time heterogeneity in the effects of disease spread between…
Objectives: Our research adopts computational techniques to analyze disease outbreaks weekly over a large geographic area while maintaining local-level analysis by incorporating relevant high-spatial resolution cultural and environmental…
This paper focuses on studying the impact of climate data and vector larval indices on dengue outbreak. After a comparative study of the various LSTM models, Bidirectional Stacked LSTM network is selected to analyze the time series climate…
We consider the SIR epidemiological model applied to the evolution of COVID-19 with two approaches. In the first place we fit a global SIR model, with time delay, and constant parameters throughout the outbreak, including the contagion…
Metapopulation (multipatch) models are widely used to study the patterns of spatial spread of epidemics. In this paper we study the impact of inter-patch connection weights on the predictions of these models. We contrast arbitrary, uniform…
Standard epidemiological models for COVID-19 employ variants of compartment (SIR) models at local scales, implicitly assuming spatially uniform local mixing. Here, we examine the effect of employing more geographically detailed diffusion…
To study the impact of climate variables on morbidity of some diseases in Mexico, we propose a spatio-temporal varying coefficients regression model. For that we introduce a new spatio-temporal dependent process prior, in a Bayesian…
Understanding age-group dynamics of infectious diseases is a fundamental issue for both scientific study and policymaking. Age-structure epidemic models were developed in order to study and improve our understanding of these dynamics. By…
The relationship between epidemiology, mathematical modeling and computational tools allows to build and test theories on the development and battling of a disease. This PhD thesis is motivated by the study of epidemiological models applied…
We introduce a stochastic household model for vector-borne diseases, in particular as relevant to prominent vectors belonging to the Aedes genus and hence the Zika, chikungunya, and dengue viruses. In this model, vectors remain local to…