相关论文: Large-scale Epidemiological modeling: Scanning for…
Usutu virus (USUV) is a flavivirus of the Japanese encephalitis complex transmitted between \textit{Culex} mosquitoes and birds, a transmission pattern similar to that of the West Nile virus (WNV). In Germany, the first case of USUV was…
We develop a multiple compartment Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model to analyze the spread of several infectious diseases through different geographic areas. Additionally, we propose a data-quality sensitive optimization framework…
In this work, we adapt the epidemiological SIR model to study the evolution of the dissemination of COVID-19 in Germany and Brazil (nationally, in the State of Paraiba, and in the City of Campina Grande). We prove the well posedness and the…
This paper presents a mathematical model to investigate co-infection with HIV/AIDS and zika virus (ZIKV) in Colombia and Brazil, where the first cases were reported in 2015-2016. The model considers the sexual transmission dynamics of both…
We model and forecast the early evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil using Brazilian recent data from February 25, 2020 to March 30, 2020. This early period accounts for unawareness of the epidemiological characteristics of the…
Remote sensing satellite data offer the unique possibility to map land use land cover transformations by providing spatially explicit information. However, detection of short-term processes and land use patterns of high spatial-temporal…
Aedes aegypti is the main vector of multiple diseases, such as Dengue, Zika, and Chikungunya. Due to modifications in weather patterns, its geographical range is continuously evolving. Temperature is a key factor for its expansion into…
The spread of infectious diseases crucially depends on the pattern of contacts among individuals. Knowledge of these patterns is thus essential to inform models and computational efforts. Few empirical studies are however available that…
In this paper, we develop a method to estimate the infection-rate of a disease, over a region, as a field that varies in space and time. To do so, we use time-series of case-counts of symptomatic patients as observed in the areal units that…
Reliable and timely dengue predictions provide actionable lead time for targeted vector control and clinical preparedness, reducing preventable diseases and health-system costs in at-risk communities. Dengue forecasting often relies on…
Mathematical and computational modeling approaches are increasingly used as quantitative tools in the analysis and forecasting of infectious disease epidemics. The growing need for realism in addressing complex public health questions is…
Infectious disease outbreaks recapitulate biology: they emerge from the multi-level interaction of hosts, pathogens, and their shared environment. As a result, predicting when, where, and how far diseases will spread requires a complex…
Multiple instances of Zika virus epidemic have been reported around the world in the last two decades, turning the related illness into an international concern. In this context the use of mathematical models for epidemics is of great…
We simulate a spatial behavioral model of the diffusion of an infection to understand the role of geographic characteristics: the number and distribution of outbreaks, population size, density, and agents' movements. We show that several…
Epidemiological early warning systems for dengue fever rely on up-to-date epidemiological data to forecast future incidence. However, epidemiological data typically requires time to be available, due to the application of time-consuming…
We present an approach to studying and predicting the spatio-temporal progression of infectious diseases. We treat the problem by adopting a partial differential equation (PDE) version of the Susceptible, Infected, Recovered, Deceased…
TThis paper presents the dynamics of mosquitoes and humans, with general nonlinear incidence rate and multiple distributed delays for the disease. The model is a SEIRS system of delay differential equations. The normalized dimensionless…
This manuscript proposes a model of $n$ distinct populations interaction structured SEIR to describe the spread of COVID-19 pandemic diseases. The proposed model has the flexibility to include geographically separated communities as well as…
An important consequence of human induced climate change is the increase in extreme weather events. This study contributes to the understanding of Brazil's climate change by examining historical temperature and precipitation patterns.…
We extend the classical SIR model of infectious disease spread to account for time dependence in the parameters, which also include diffusivities. The temporal dependence accounts for the changing characteristics of testing, quarantine and…